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The Bayesian Additive Classification Tree applied to credit risk modelling

Author

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  • Zhang, Junni L.
  • Härdle, Wolfgang K.

Abstract

We propose a new nonlinear classification method based on a Bayesian "sum-of-trees" model, the Bayesian Additive Classification Tree (BACT), which extends the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) method into the classification context. Like BART, the BACT is a Bayesian nonparametric additive model specified by a prior and a likelihood in which the additive components are trees, and it is fitted by an iterative MCMC algorithm. Each of the trees learns a different part of the underlying function relating the dependent variable to the input variables, but the sum of the trees offers a flexible and robust model. Through several benchmark examples, we show that the BACT shows excellent performance. We apply the BACT technique to classify whether firms would be insolvent. This practical example is very important for banks to construct their risk profile and operate successfully. We use the German Creditreform database and classify the solvency status of German firms based on financial statement information. We show that the BACT is a serious competitor to the logit model, CART, the Support Vector Machine, random forest and gradient boosting.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Junni L. & Härdle, Wolfgang K., 2010. "The Bayesian Additive Classification Tree applied to credit risk modelling," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1197-1205, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:54:y:2010:i:5:p:1197-1205
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Friedman, Jerome H., 2002. "Stochastic gradient boosting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 367-378, February.
    2. Härdle, Wolfgang Karl & Moro, Rouslan A. & Schäfer, Dorothea, 2007. "Estimating probabilities of default with support vector machines," Discussion Paper Series 2: Banking and Financial Studies 2007,18, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Dedy Dwi Prastyo, 2013. "Default Risk Calculation based on Predictor Selection for the Southeast Asian Industry," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Classification and regression tree Financial ratio Misclassification rate Accuracy ratio;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics

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