IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v191y2025ics0960077924013651.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the vulnerability of empirical infrastructure networks to natural catastrophes

Author

Listed:
  • Scagliarini, Tomas
  • Artime, Oriol
  • De Domenico, Manlio

Abstract

Human-made infrastructures are complex systems continually exposed to events that threat their function, such as cascading failures, occurring when the flow of physical quantities is redistributed within the network as a consequence of localized disruptions. Nevertheless, the role played by exogenous catastrophic events and internal failures on the robustness of critical infrastructures is usually addressed independently, under simplifying assumptions and lacking a unified picture for realistic risk assessments. Here, we fill this gap by introducing the Operational-Affected-Dismantled (OAD) model that captures both local and nonlocal failure propagation mechanisms. The model combines reaction–diffusion processes for local spreading with a global field effect for long-range interactions, allowing us to quantitatively characterize the cascade dynamics in infrastructure networks. Moreover, we include information on external stressors to assess the robustness of empirical network infrastructures and build spatial risk maps. By using data from severe storms (2009–2016) and from earthquakes (2000–2023) as stressors of the North American power grid and the worldwide airline transportation system, respectively, we offer a quantitative way to rank events by their potential to trigger systemic effects. By analyzing the response of the European power grid to simulated severe storms, we find that it can show high levels of systemic risk. Uncertainty in global climate and the accelerating frequency of extreme events all over the globe call for novel strategies to quantify, adapt to and mitigate systemic risk. Our framework provides a suitable starting point to assess the robustness of empirical systems in realistic and what-if scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Scagliarini, Tomas & Artime, Oriol & De Domenico, Manlio, 2025. "Assessing the vulnerability of empirical infrastructure networks to natural catastrophes," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:191:y:2025:i:c:s0960077924013651
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077924013651
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2024.115813?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Haibin & Davidson, Rachel A. & Apanasovich, Tatiyana V., 2008. "Spatial generalized linear mixed models of electric power outages due to hurricanes and ice storms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(6), pages 897-912.
    2. Benjamin Schäfer & Thiemo Pesch & Debsankha Manik & Julian Gollenstede & Guosong Lin & Hans-Peter Beck & Dirk Witthaut & Marc Timme, 2022. "Understanding Braess’ Paradox in power grids," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Liu, Wei & Song, Zhaoyang, 2020. "Review of studies on the resilience of urban critical infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    4. W J Wouter Botzen & Olivier Deschenes & Mark Sanders, 2019. "The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Review of Models and Empirical Studies," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 167-188.
    5. Réka Albert & Hawoong Jeong & Albert-László Barabási, 2000. "Error and attack tolerance of complex networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 406(6794), pages 378-382, July.
    6. Strobl, Eric, 2012. "The economic growth impact of natural disasters in developing countries: Evidence from hurricane strikes in the Central American and Caribbean regions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(1), pages 130-141.
    7. V. Rosato & L. Issacharoff & F. Tiriticco & S. Meloni & S. De Porcellinis & R. Setola, 2008. "Modelling interdependent infrastructures using interacting dynamical models," International Journal of Critical Infrastructures, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(1/2), pages 63-79.
    8. Marco Turco & Juan José Rosa-Cánovas & Joaquín Bedia & Sonia Jerez & Juan Pedro Montávez & Maria Carmen Llasat & Antonello Provenzale, 2018. "Exacerbated fires in Mediterranean Europe due to anthropogenic warming projected with non-stationary climate-fire models," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
    9. William D. Nordhaus, 2006. "The Economics of Hurricanes in the United States," NBER Working Papers 12813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Shanjiang Zhu & David M. Levinson, 2012. "Disruptions to Transportation Networks: A Review," Transportation Research, Economics and Policy, in: David M. Levinson & Henry X. Liu & Michael Bell (ed.), Network Reliability in Practice, edition 1, chapter 0, pages 5-20, Springer.
    11. Antonio Majdandzic & Lidia A. Braunstein & Chester Curme & Irena Vodenska & Sary Levy-Carciente & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2016. "Multiple tipping points and optimal repairing in interacting networks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, April.
    12. Murphy, Sinnott & Sowell, Fallaw & Apt, Jay, 2019. "A time-dependent model of generator failures and recoveries captures correlated events and quantifies temperature dependence," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    13. Sergey V. Buldyrev & Roni Parshani & Gerald Paul & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2010. "Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks," Nature, Nature, vol. 464(7291), pages 1025-1028, April.
    14. Hughes, William & Zhang, Wei & Bagtzoglou, Amvrossios C. & Wanik, David & Pensado, Osvaldo & Yuan, Hao & Zhang, Jintao, 2021. "Damage modeling framework for resilience hardening strategy for overhead power distribution systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    15. Benjamin Schäfer & Dirk Witthaut & Marc Timme & Vito Latora, 2018. "Dynamically induced cascading failures in power grids," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, December.
    16. Fabricius, Gabriel & Maltz, Alberto, 2020. "Exploring the threshold of epidemic spreading for a stochastic SIR model with local and global contacts," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    17. Dim Coumou & Stefan Rahmstorf, 2012. "A decade of weather extremes," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(7), pages 491-496, July.
    18. Marco Grassia & Manlio De Domenico & Giuseppe Mangioni, 2021. "Machine learning dismantling and early-warning signals of disintegration in complex systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    19. Benjamin Schäfer & Dirk Witthaut & Marc Timme & Vito Latora, 2018. "Author Correction: Dynamically induced cascading failures in power grids," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-1, December.
    20. Oriol Artime & Manlio De Domenico, 2021. "Percolation on feature-enriched interconnected systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brunner, L.G. & Peer, R.A.M. & Zorn, C. & Paulik, R. & Logan, T.M., 2024. "Understanding cascading risks through real-world interdependent urban infrastructure," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    2. Pei, Jianxin & Liu, Ying & Wang, Wei & Gong, Jie, 2021. "Cascading failures in multiplex network under flow redistribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 583(C).
    3. Qu, Junyi & Liu, Ying & Tang, Ming & Guan, Shuguang, 2022. "Identification of the most influential stocks in financial networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Gangwal, Utkarsh & Singh, Mayank & Pandey, Pradumn Kumar & Kamboj, Deepak & Chatterjee, Samrat & Bhatia, Udit, 2022. "Identifying early-warning indicators of onset of sudden collapse in networked infrastructure systems against sequential disruptions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 591(C).
    5. Liang, Yuan & Qi, Mingze & Huangpeng, Qizi & Duan, Xiaojun, 2023. "Percolation of interlayer feature-correlated multiplex networks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    6. Hao Wu & Xiangyi Meng & Michael M. Danziger & Sean P. Cornelius & Hui Tian & Albert-László Barabási, 2022. "Fragmentation of outage clusters during the recovery of power distribution grids," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    7. Wang, Jianwei & Jiang, Chen & Qian, Jianfei, 2014. "Robustness of interdependent networks with different link patterns against cascading failures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 393(C), pages 535-541.
    8. Liu, Hao & Chen, Xin & Huo, Long & Zhang, Yadong & Niu, Chunming, 2022. "Impact of inter-network assortativity on robustness against cascading failures in cyber–physical power systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    9. Zhang, Kaimin & Bai, Libiao & Xie, Xiaoyan & Wang, Chenshuo, 2023. "Modeling of risk cascading propagation in project portfolio network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 612(C).
    10. Kashin Sugishita & Yasuo Asakura, 2021. "Vulnerability studies in the fields of transportation and complex networks: a citation network analysis," Public Transport, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-34, March.
    11. Frasca, Mattia & Gambuzza, Lucia Valentina, 2021. "Control of cascading failures in dynamical models of power grids," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P2).
    12. Wu, Chengxing & Duan, Dongli, 2024. "Collapse process prediction of mutualistic dynamical networks with k-core and dimension reduction method," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    13. Fontaine, Idriss & Garabedian, Sabine & Vérèmes, Hélène, 2024. "Tropical cyclones and fertility: New evidence from developing countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. Lee, Joohyun & Kwak, Jaewook & Lee, Hyang-Won & Shroff, Ness B., 2018. "Finding minimum node separators: A Markov chain Monte Carlo method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 225-235.
    15. I. Bonamassa & B. Gross & J. Kertész & S. Havlin, 2025. "Hybrid universality classes of systemic cascades," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Ding, Xiao & Wang, Huan & Zhang, Xi & Ma, Chuang & Zhang, Hai-Feng, 2024. "Dual nature of cyber–physical power systems and the mitigation strategies," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    17. Lee, Yongsun & Choi, Hoyun & Pagnier, Laurent & Kim, Cook Hyun & Lee, Jongshin & Jhun, Bukyoung & Kim, Heetae & Kurths, Jürgen & Kahng, B., 2024. "Reinforcement learning optimizes power dispatch in decentralized power grid," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    18. Zhu, Yanpeng & Chen, Lei & Jia, Chun-Xiao & Meng, Fanyuan & Liu, Run-Ran, 2023. "Non-Markovian node fragility in cascading failures on random networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 630(C).
    19. Ouyang, Min, 2014. "Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 43-60.
    20. Chopra, Shauhrat S. & Khanna, Vikas, 2015. "Interconnectedness and interdependencies of critical infrastructures in the US economy: Implications for resilience," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 436(C), pages 865-877.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:191:y:2025:i:c:s0960077924013651. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.