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Sensitivity assessment and optimal economic evaluation of a new COVID-19 compartmental epidemic model with control interventions

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  • Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K.
  • Jin, Zhen
  • Sun, Gui-Quan
  • Seidu, Baba
  • Yankson, Ernest
  • Abidemi, Afeez
  • Oduro, F.T.
  • Moore, Stephen E.
  • Okyere, Eric

Abstract

Optimal economic evaluation is pivotal in prioritising the implementation of non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical interventions in the control of diseases. Governments, decision-makers and policy-makers broadly need information about the effectiveness of a control intervention concerning its cost-benefit to evaluate whether a control intervention offers the best value for money. The outbreak of COVID-19 in December 2019, and the eventual spread to other parts of the world, have pushed governments and health authorities to take drastic socioeconomic, sociocultural and sociopolitical measures to curb the spread of the virus, SARS-CoV-2. To help policy-makers, health authorities and governments, we propose a Susceptible, Exposed, Asymptomatic, Quarantined asymptomatic, Severely infected, Hospitalized, Recovered, Recovered asymptomatic, Deceased, and Protective susceptible (individuals who observe health protocols) compartmental structure to describe the dynamics of COVID-19. We fit the model to real data from Ghana and Egypt to estimate model parameters using standard incidence rate. Projections for disease control and sensitivity analysis are presented using MATLAB. We noticed that multiple peaks (waves) of COVID-19 for Ghana and Egypt can be prevented if stringent health protocols are implemented for a long time and/or the reluctant behaviour on the use of protective equipment by individuals are minimized. The sensitivity analysis suggests that: the rate of diagnoses and testing, the rate of quarantine through doubling enhanced contact tracing, adhering to physical distancing, adhering to wearing of nose masks, sanitizing-washing hands, media education remains the most effective measures in reducing the control reproduction number Rc, to less than unity in the absence of vaccines and therapeutic drugs in Ghana and Egypt. Optimal control and cost-effectiveness analysis are rigorously studied. The main finding is that having two controls (transmission reduction and case isolation) is better than having one control, but is economically expensive. In case only one control is affordable, then transmission reduction is better than case isolation. Hopefully, the results of this research should help policy-makers when dealing with multiple waves of COVID-19.

Suggested Citation

  • Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Jin, Zhen & Sun, Gui-Quan & Seidu, Baba & Yankson, Ernest & Abidemi, Afeez & Oduro, F.T. & Moore, Stephen E. & Okyere, Eric, 2021. "Sensitivity assessment and optimal economic evaluation of a new COVID-19 compartmental epidemic model with control interventions," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:146:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921002381
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110885
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Owusu, Mark A. & Jin, Zhen & Oduro, F. T. & Abidemi, Afeez & Gyasi, Esther Opoku, 2020. "Global stability and cost-effectiveness analysis of COVID-19 considering the impact of the environment: using data from Ghana," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    2. Smith, Richard D., 2006. "Responding to global infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from SARS on the role of risk perception, communication and management," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 63(12), pages 3113-3123, December.
    3. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Nyabadza, Farai & Jin, Zhen & Bonyah, Ebenezer & Khan, Muhammad Altaf & Li, Michael Y. & Hayat, Tasawar, 2020. "Backward bifurcation and sensitivity analysis for bacterial meningitis transmission dynamics with a nonlinear recovery rate," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    4. Ullah, Saif & Khan, Muhammad Altaf, 2020. "Modeling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the dynamics of novel coronavirus with optimal control analysis with a case study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Joshua Kiddy K. Asamoah & Francis T. Oduro & Ebenezer Bonyah & Baba Seidu, 2017. "Modelling of Rabies Transmission Dynamics Using Optimal Control Analysis," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2017, pages 1-23, July.
    6. Folashade B Agusto & Ibrahim M ELmojtaba, 2017. "Optimal control and cost-effective analysis of malaria/visceral leishmaniasis co-infection," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-31, February.
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    2. Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Fatmawati,, 2023. "A fractional mathematical model of heartwater transmission dynamics considering nymph and adult amblyomma ticks," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    3. Addai, Emmanuel & Zhang, Lingling & Ackora-Prah, Joseph & Gordon, Joseph Frank & Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K. & Essel, John Fiifi, 2022. "Fractal-fractional order dynamics and numerical simulations of a Zika epidemic model with insecticide-treated nets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 603(C).
    4. Abidemi, Afeez & Ackora-Prah, Joseph & Fatoyinbo, Hammed Olawale & Asamoah, Joshua Kiddy K., 2022. "Lyapunov stability analysis and optimization measures for a dengue disease transmission model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 602(C).
    5. J. O. Akanni & Fatmawati & S. Ajao & J. K. K. Asamoah & S. F. Abimbade, 2025. "Mathematical model of COVID-19 dynamics in the presence of multiple controls," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 261-290, February.
    6. Patricia Adjeley Laryea & F. T. Oduro & Christopher Saaha Bornaa & Samuel Okyere, 2024. "A Transmission Dynamics Model of COVID-19 With Consideration of the Vulnerability of a Population," Journal of Mathematics Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 15(5), pages 1-47, December.
    7. Lv, Wei & Zhuang, Shi-Jia & Yu, Changjun, 2022. "Robust bi-objective optimal control of tungiasis diseases," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Fehaid Salem Alshammari & Ezgi Akyildiz Tezcan, 2022. "Exploring Radial Kernel on the Novel Forced SEYNHRV-S Model to Capture the Second Wave of COVID-19 Spread and the Variable Transmission Rate," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-17, May.
    9. Farai Nyabadza & Josiah Mushanyu & Rachel Mbogo & Gift Muchatibaya, 2023. "Modelling the Influence of Dynamic Social Processes on COVID-19 Infection Dynamics," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, February.
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