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A (2+1)-Dimensional Fractional-Order Epidemic Model with Pulse Jumps for Omicron COVID-19 Transmission and Its Numerical Simulation

Author

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  • Wen-Jing Zhu

    (Affiliated Mental Health Center, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou Seventh People’s Hospital, Hangzhou 310013, China)

  • Shou-Feng Shen

    (Department of Applied Mathematics, Zhejiang University of Technology, Hangzhou 310023, China)

  • Wen-Xiu Ma

    (Department of Mathematics, Zhejiang Normal University, Jinhua 321004, China
    Department of Mathematics, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia
    Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL 33620-5700, USA
    School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, North-West University, Mafikeng Campus, Private Bag X2046, Mmabatho 2735, South Africa)

Abstract

In this paper, we would like to propose a (2+1)-dimensional fractional-order epidemic model with pulse jumps to describe the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. The problem of identifying the involved parameters in the proposed model is reduced to a minimization problem of a quadratic objective function, based on the reported data. Moreover, we perform numerical simulation to study the effect of the parameters in diverse fractional-order cases. The number of undiscovered cases can be calculated precisely to assess the severity of the outbreak. The results by numerical simulation show that the degree of accuracy is higher than the classical epidemic models. The regular testing protocol is very important to find the undiscovered cases in the beginning of the outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen-Jing Zhu & Shou-Feng Shen & Wen-Xiu Ma, 2022. "A (2+1)-Dimensional Fractional-Order Epidemic Model with Pulse Jumps for Omicron COVID-19 Transmission and Its Numerical Simulation," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-14, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jmathe:v:10:y:2022:i:14:p:2517-:d:866815
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Annas, Suwardi & Isbar Pratama, Muh. & Rifandi, Muh. & Sanusi, Wahidah & Side, Syafruddin, 2020. "Stability analysis and numerical simulation of SEIR model for pandemic COVID-19 spread in Indonesia," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
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