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Robust scenario-based stochastic expansion planning of multi-carrier microgrids considering incentive-based loans

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  • Azimian, Mahdi
  • Shen, Xinwei
  • Gharehpetian, Gevork B.

Abstract

This research represents a planning method for carbon-neutral multi-carrier microgrids and provides suggestions for financial policy-making. The major obstacles to the proliferation of carbon-neutral multi-carrier microgrids are significant capital cost, intermittency, and volatility of renewable resources. Thus, a robust scenario-based stochastic expansion planning approach considering long-term investment-based incentives is proposed for microgrids with renewables, energy storage systems, and demand response. The planning model aims to minimize the project's expected cost while meeting the assigned reliability and online reserve levels. We also scrutinize allocating capital investment loan subsidies within the budget for designing a fiscally viable, reliable, and carbon-neutral multi-carrier microgrid. Moreover, the goal is to optimize the distribution of loan subsidies to warrant the efficient formation of assets, regardless of the investor's budget limitations. The model not only sizes the distributed energy resources but also identifies the demand response utilization factor to offer flexibility services. Various economic indicators are considered to assess the investment's profitability and ensure the project's viability. Finally, numerical tests unveil the path for the government to adopt practical strategies to foster rapid growth of low-carbon energy systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Azimian, Mahdi & Shen, Xinwei & Gharehpetian, Gevork B., 2025. "Robust scenario-based stochastic expansion planning of multi-carrier microgrids considering incentive-based loans," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 401(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:401:y:2025:i:pa:s0306261925013236
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2025.126593
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    References listed on IDEAS

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