IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/appene/v260y2020ics0306261919319336.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cluster analysis and prediction of residential peak demand profiles using occupant activity data

Author

Listed:
  • Satre-Meloy, Aven
  • Diakonova, Marina
  • Grünewald, Philipp

Abstract

Researching the dynamics of residential electricity consumption at finely-resolved timescales is increasingly practical with the growing availability of high-resolution data and analytical methods to characterize them. One methodological approach that is popular for exploring consumption dynamics is load profile clustering. Despite an abundance of available algorithmic techniques, clustering load profiles is challenging because clustering methods do not always capture the temporal aspects of electricity consumption and because clusters are difficult to explain without additional descriptive household data. These challenges limit the use of cluster analysis to better understand behavioral and other drivers of electricity usage patterns.

Suggested Citation

  • Satre-Meloy, Aven & Diakonova, Marina & Grünewald, Philipp, 2020. "Cluster analysis and prediction of residential peak demand profiles using occupant activity data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:260:y:2020:i:c:s0306261919319336
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114246
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919319336
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114246?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tso, Geoffrey K.F. & Yau, Kelvin K.W., 2007. "Predicting electricity energy consumption: A comparison of regression analysis, decision tree and neural networks," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1761-1768.
    2. Viegas, Joaquim L. & Vieira, Susana M. & Melício, R. & Mendes, V.M.F. & Sousa, João M.C., 2016. "Classification of new electricity customers based on surveys and smart metering data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 804-817.
    3. Christoph Flath & David Nicolay & Tobias Conte & Clemens Dinther & Lilia Filipova-Neumann, 2012. "Cluster Analysis of Smart Metering Data," Business & Information Systems Engineering: The International Journal of WIRTSCHAFTSINFORMATIK, Springer;Gesellschaft für Informatik e.V. (GI), vol. 4(1), pages 31-39, February.
    4. De Lauretis, Simona & Ghersi, Frédéric & Cayla, Jean-Michel, 2017. "Energy consumption and activity patterns: An analysis extended to total time and energy use for French households," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 634-648.
    5. Zhou, Kai-le & Yang, Shan-lin & Shen, Chao, 2013. "A review of electric load classification in smart grid environment," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 103-110.
    6. Kuhn, Max, 2008. "Building Predictive Models in R Using the caret Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 28(i05).
    7. Glenn Milligan & Martha Cooper, 1985. "An examination of procedures for determining the number of clusters in a data set," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 50(2), pages 159-179, June.
    8. Matthew Harding & Steven Sexton, 2017. "Household Response to Time-Varying Electricity Prices," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 337-359, October.
    9. Ma, Jun & Cheng, Jack C.P., 2016. "Identifying the influential features on the regional energy use intensity of residential buildings based on Random Forests," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 193-201.
    10. McLoughlin, Fintan & Duffy, Aidan & Conlon, Michael, 2015. "A clustering approach to domestic electricity load profile characterisation using smart metering data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 190-199.
    11. Michael Parti & Cynthia Parti, 1980. "The Total and Appliance-Specific Conditional Demand for Electricity in the Household Sector," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 11(1), pages 309-321, Spring.
    12. Satre-Meloy, Aven, 2019. "Investigating structural and occupant drivers of annual residential electricity consumption using regularization in regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 148-168.
    13. Räsänen, Teemu & Voukantsis, Dimitrios & Niska, Harri & Karatzas, Kostas & Kolehmainen, Mikko, 2010. "Data-based method for creating electricity use load profiles using large amount of customer-specific hourly measured electricity use data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(11), pages 3538-3545, November.
    14. Hsu, David, 2015. "Comparison of integrated clustering methods for accurate and stable prediction of building energy consumption data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 153-163.
    15. Rhodes, Joshua D. & Cole, Wesley J. & Upshaw, Charles R. & Edgar, Thomas F. & Webber, Michael E., 2014. "Clustering analysis of residential electricity demand profiles," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 461-471.
    16. Wright, Marvin N. & Ziegler, Andreas, 2017. "ranger: A Fast Implementation of Random Forests for High Dimensional Data in C++ and R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 77(i01).
    17. Zhao, Hai-xiang & Magoulès, Frédéric, 2012. "A review on the prediction of building energy consumption," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 3586-3592.
    18. Robert Tibshirani & Guenther Walther & Trevor Hastie, 2001. "Estimating the number of clusters in a data set via the gap statistic," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 63(2), pages 411-423.
    19. Friedman, Jerome H. & Hastie, Trevor & Tibshirani, Rob, 2010. "Regularization Paths for Generalized Linear Models via Coordinate Descent," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 33(i01).
    20. Félix Iglesias & Wolfgang Kastner, 2013. "Analysis of Similarity Measures in Times Series Clustering for the Discovery of Building Energy Patterns," Energies, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, January.
    21. Matthew Harding & Steven Sexton, 2017. "Household Response to Time-Varying Electricity Prices," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 337-359, October.
    22. Nicolson, Moira L. & Fell, Michael J. & Huebner, Gesche M., 2018. "Consumer demand for time of use electricity tariffs: A systematized review of the empirical evidence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 276-289.
    23. Druckman, Angela & Buck, Ian & Hayward, Bronwyn & Jackson, Tim, 2012. "Time, gender and carbon: A study of the carbon implications of British adults' use of time," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 153-163.
    24. Swan, Lukas G. & Ugursal, V. Ismet, 2009. "Modeling of end-use energy consumption in the residential sector: A review of modeling techniques," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(8), pages 1819-1835, October.
    25. McKenna, Eoghan & Thomson, Murray, 2016. "High-resolution stochastic integrated thermal–electrical domestic demand model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 445-461.
    26. McLoughlin, Fintan & Duffy, Aidan & Conlon, Michael, 2013. "Evaluation of time series techniques to characterise domestic electricity demand," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 120-130.
    27. Beckel, Christian & Sadamori, Leyna & Staake, Thorsten & Santini, Silvia, 2014. "Revealing household characteristics from smart meter data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 397-410.
    28. Amasyali, Kadir & El-Gohary, Nora M., 2018. "A review of data-driven building energy consumption prediction studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 1192-1205.
    29. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    30. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    31. Jalas, Mikko & Juntunen, Jouni K., 2015. "Energy intensive lifestyles: Time use, the activity patterns of consumers, and related energy demands in Finland," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 51-59.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tanoto, Yusak & Haghdadi, Navid & Bruce, Anna & MacGill, Iain, 2020. "Clustering based assessment of cost, security and environmental tradeoffs with possible future electricity generation portfolios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    2. Claudia Bustamante & Stephen Bird & Lisa Legault & Susan E. Powers, 2023. "Energy Hogs and Misers: Magnitude and Variability of Individuals’ Household Electricity Consumption," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Hua Chen & Shuang Dai & Fanlin Meng, 2023. "Smart Building Thermal Management: A Data-Driven Approach Based on Dynamic and Consensus Clustering," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-25, October.
    4. Barja-Martinez, Sara & Aragüés-Peñalba, Mònica & Munné-Collado, Íngrid & Lloret-Gallego, Pau & Bullich-Massagué, Eduard & Villafafila-Robles, Roberto, 2021. "Artificial intelligence techniques for enabling Big Data services in distribution networks: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Gianluca Trotta & Kirsten Gram-Hanssen & Pernille Lykke Jørgensen, 2020. "Heterogeneity of Electricity Consumption Patterns in Vulnerable Households," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
    6. Zhang, Xiaohai & Ramírez-Mendiola, José Luis & Li, Mingtao & Guo, Liejin, 2022. "Electricity consumption pattern analysis beyond traditional clustering methods: A novel self-adapting semi-supervised clustering method and application case study," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    7. Li, Wenqiang & Gong, Guangcai & Fan, Houhua & Peng, Pei & Chun, Liang & Fang, Xi, 2021. "A clustering-based approach for “cross-scale” load prediction on building level in HVAC systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
    8. Anders Rhiger Hansen & Daniel Leiria & Hicham Johra & Anna Marszal-Pomianowska, 2022. "Who Produces the Peaks? Household Variation in Peak Energy Demand for Space Heating and Domestic Hot Water," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-23, December.
    9. Shi, Zhengyu & Wu, Libo & Zhou, Yang, 2023. "Predicting household energy consumption in an aging society," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    10. Kang, J. & Reiner, D., 2021. "Identifying residential consumption patterns using data-mining techniques: A large-scale study of smart meter data in Chengdu, China," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2143, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Anam-Nawaz Khan & Naeem Iqbal & Atif Rizwan & Rashid Ahmad & Do-Hyeun Kim, 2021. "An Ensemble Energy Consumption Forecasting Model Based on Spatial-Temporal Clustering Analysis in Residential Buildings," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-25, May.
    12. Xiaoyu Lin & Hang Yu & Meng Wang & Chaoen Li & Zi Wang & Yin Tang, 2021. "Electricity Consumption Forecast of High-Rise Office Buildings Based on the Long Short-Term Memory Method," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-21, August.
    13. Chad Zanocco & Tao Sun & Gregory Stelmach & June Flora & Ram Rajagopal & Hilary Boudet, 2022. "Assessing Californians’ awareness of their daily electricity use patterns," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(12), pages 1191-1199, December.
    14. Wen, Hanguan & Liu, Xiufeng & Yang, Ming & Lei, Bo & Cheng, Xu & Chen, Zhe, 2023. "An energy demand-side management and net metering decision framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    15. Adam Kula & Albert Smalcerz & Maciej Sajkowski & Zygmunt Kamiński, 2021. "Analysis of Office Rooms Energy Consumption Data in Respect to Meteorological and Direct Sun Exposure Conditions," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-20, November.
    16. Cansino, José M. & Dugo, Víctor & Gálvez-Ruiz, David & Román-Collado, Rocío, 2023. "What drove electricity consumption in the residential sector during the SARS-CoV-2 confinement? A special focus on university students in southern Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    17. Khan, Waqas & Liao, Juo Yu & Walker, Shalika & Zeiler, Wim, 2022. "Impact assessment of varied data granularities from commercial buildings on exploration and learning mechanism," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 319(C).
    18. Alexandra Märtz & Uwe Langenmayr & Sabrina Ried & Katrin Seddig & Patrick Jochem, 2022. "Charging Behavior of Electric Vehicles: Temporal Clustering Based on Real-World Data," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-26, September.
    19. Ahir, Rajesh K. & Chakraborty, Basab, 2023. "A data-driven analytic approach for investigation of electricity demand variability for energy conservation programs," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    20. Lesley Thomson & David Jenkins, 2023. "The Use of Real Energy Consumption Data in Characterising Residential Energy Demand with an Inventory of UK Datasets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-29, August.
    21. Yamaguchi, Yohei & Shoda, Yuto & Yoshizawa, Shinya & Imai, Tatsuya & Perwez, Usama & Shimoda, Yoshiyuki & Hayashi, Yasuhiro, 2023. "Feasibility assessment of net zero-energy transformation of building stock using integrated synthetic population, building stock, and power distribution network framework," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 333(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Satre-Meloy, Aven, 2019. "Investigating structural and occupant drivers of annual residential electricity consumption using regularization in regression models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 148-168.
    2. Li, Wenqiang & Gong, Guangcai & Fan, Houhua & Peng, Pei & Chun, Liang & Fang, Xi, 2021. "A clustering-based approach for “cross-scale” load prediction on building level in HVAC systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 282(PB).
    3. Roberts, Mike B. & Haghdadi, Navid & Bruce, Anna & MacGill, Iain, 2019. "Characterisation of Australian apartment electricity demand and its implications for low-carbon cities," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 242-257.
    4. Trotta, Gianluca, 2020. "An empirical analysis of domestic electricity load profiles: Who consumes how much and when?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    5. Hsu, David, 2015. "Comparison of integrated clustering methods for accurate and stable prediction of building energy consumption data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 153-163.
    6. Cansino, José M. & Dugo, Víctor & Gálvez-Ruiz, David & Román-Collado, Rocío, 2023. "What drove electricity consumption in the residential sector during the SARS-CoV-2 confinement? A special focus on university students in southern Spain," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(PB).
    7. Markovič, Rene & Gosak, Marko & Grubelnik, Vladimir & Marhl, Marko & Virtič, Peter, 2019. "Data-driven classification of residential energy consumption patterns by means of functional connectivity networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 242(C), pages 506-515.
    8. Hsu, David, 2015. "Identifying key variables and interactions in statistical models of building energy consumption using regularization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 144-155.
    9. Giasemidis, Georgios & Haben, Stephen & Lee, Tamsin & Singleton, Colin & Grindrod, Peter, 2017. "A genetic algorithm approach for modelling low voltage network demands," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 463-473.
    10. Jieyi Kang & David Reiner, 2021. "Identifying residential consumption patterns using data-mining techniques: A large-scale study of smart meter data in Chengdu, China," Working Papers EPRG2114, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    11. Jacqueline Nicole Adams & Zsófia Deme Bélafi & Miklós Horváth & János Balázs Kocsis & Tamás Csoknyai, 2021. "How Smart Meter Data Analysis Can Support Understanding the Impact of Occupant Behavior on Building Energy Performance: A Comprehensive Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Rajabi, Amin & Eskandari, Mohsen & Ghadi, Mojtaba Jabbari & Li, Li & Zhang, Jiangfeng & Siano, Pierluigi, 2020. "A comparative study of clustering techniques for electrical load pattern segmentation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    13. Guo, Zhifeng & O'Hanley, Jesse R. & Gibson, Stuart, 2022. "Predicting residential electricity consumption patterns based on smart meter and household data: A case study from the Republic of Ireland," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    14. Gerossier, Alexis & Barbier, Thibaut & Girard, Robin, 2017. "A novel method for decomposing electricity feeder load into elementary profiles from customer information," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 752-760.
    15. Štefan Lyócsa & Petra Vašaničová & Branka Hadji Misheva & Marko Dávid Vateha, 2022. "Default or profit scoring credit systems? Evidence from European and US peer-to-peer lending markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Rongheng Lin & Budan Wu & Yun Su, 2018. "An Adaptive Weighted Pearson Similarity Measurement Method for Load Curve Clustering," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-17, September.
    17. Gianluca Trotta & Kirsten Gram-Hanssen & Pernille Lykke Jørgensen, 2020. "Heterogeneity of Electricity Consumption Patterns in Vulnerable Households," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-17, September.
    18. Papadopoulos, Sokratis & Bonczak, Bartosz & Kontokosta, Constantine E., 2018. "Pattern recognition in building energy performance over time using energy benchmarking data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 576-586.
    19. Ma, Weiwu & Fang, Song & Liu, Gang & Zhou, Ruoyu, 2017. "Modeling of district load forecasting for distributed energy system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 181-205.
    20. McLoughlin, Fintan & Duffy, Aidan & Conlon, Michael, 2015. "A clustering approach to domestic electricity load profile characterisation using smart metering data," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 190-199.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:260:y:2020:i:c:s0306261919319336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.