IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v323y2026ics0378377425008236.html

Atmospheric dryness and flash drought severity drive the shifts of different flash drought types into agricultural droughts

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Chen
  • She, Dunxian
  • Zhang, Liping
  • Wang, Gangsheng
  • Jing, Zhaoxia
  • Hong, Si
  • Xia, Jun

Abstract

Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset and intensification, can evolve into long-term agricultural droughts, thereby amplifying adverse impacts on water resources, agriculture, and ecosystems. However, the propagation from short-term flash droughts to long-term agricultural droughts remains limited understood, particularly across different flash drought types. Here we developed an integrated framework that combined convergent cross mapping (CCM), the random forest model, and the copula-based Bayesian approach to investigate the propagation pathways and underlying mechanisms. We applied this framework to analyze the propagation of meteorological, soil, and evaporative flash droughts into agricultural droughts in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Basin (MLRYRB) from 2000 to 2022. Our results revealed strong causal relationships between flash droughts and agricultural droughts, with an average propagation time of 36.8–48.8 days. Meteorological flash droughts showed the shortest propagation time, while evaporative flash droughts exhibited the longest. Soil flash droughts demonstrated the highest propagation frequency, rate, and sensitivity to agricultural droughts, while evaporative flash droughts showed the lowest translation rates to agricultural droughts. We further found that flash drought severity strongly influenced the propagation of all flash drought types, particularly soil flash droughts, with a threshold value of 11.2 ± 2.3. Additionally, precipitation and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) emerged as the most critical factor for meteorological and evaporative flash drought propagation, with threshold values of 14.3 ± 7.6 mm and 7.8 ± 2.3 hPa, respectively. These findings can advance our understanding of flash drought dynamics and mechanisms, offering important insights for effective drought mitigation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Chen & She, Dunxian & Zhang, Liping & Wang, Gangsheng & Jing, Zhaoxia & Hong, Si & Xia, Jun, 2026. "Atmospheric dryness and flash drought severity drive the shifts of different flash drought types into agricultural droughts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:323:y:2026:i:c:s0378377425008236
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110109
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377425008236
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110109?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ding, Yibo & Gong, Xinglong & Xing, Zhenxiang & Cai, Huanjie & Zhou, Zhaoqiang & Zhang, Doudou & Sun, Peng & Shi, Haiyun, 2021. "Attribution of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought propagation in different climatic regions of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Zheng Fu & Philippe Ciais & Jean-Pierre Wigneron & Pierre Gentine & Andrew F. Feldman & David Makowski & Nicolas Viovy & Armen R. Kemanian & Daniel S. Goll & Paul C. Stoy & Iain Colin Prentice & Dan Y, 2024. "Global critical soil moisture thresholds of plant water stress," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Jordan I. Christian & Jeffrey B. Basara & Eric D. Hunt & Jason A. Otkin & Jason C. Furtado & Vimal Mishra & Xiangming Xiao & Robb M. Randall, 2021. "Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Hu, Chen & She, Dunxian & Wang, Gangsheng & Zhang, Liping & Jing, Zhaoxia & Song, Zhihong & Xia, Jun, 2025. "Unravelling spatiotemporal propagation processes among meteorological, soil, and evaporative flash droughts from a three-dimensional perspective," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    5. Yamin Qing & Shuo Wang & Brian C. Ancell & Zong-Liang Yang, 2022. "Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    6. David Gampe & Jakob Zscheischler & Markus Reichstein & Michael O’Sullivan & William K. Smith & Stephen Sitch & Wolfgang Buermann, 2021. "Increasing impact of warm droughts on northern ecosystem productivity over recent decades," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 772-779, September.
    7. Xing Yuan & Linying Wang & Peili Wu & Peng Ji & Justin Sheffield & Miao Zhang, 2019. "Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qi, Zixuan & Ye, Yuchen & Sun, Lian & Yuan, Chaoxia & Cai, Yanpeng & Xie, Yulei & Cheng, Guanhui & Zhang, Pingping, 2025. "Development of an indicator system for solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence monitoring to enhance early warning of flash drought," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 312(C).
    2. Li, Ming & Hou, Jingming & Wang, Lei & Zong, Shengwei & Wang, Guiwen & Chai, Xurong, 2025. "Regional variations and climatic drivers of flash droughts during the growing season in China (2000–2020)," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).
    3. Hu, Chen & She, Dunxian & Wang, Gangsheng & Zhang, Liping & Jing, Zhaoxia & Song, Zhihong & Xia, Jun, 2025. "Unravelling spatiotemporal propagation processes among meteorological, soil, and evaporative flash droughts from a three-dimensional perspective," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    4. Ma, Yiwen & Yu, Xuan & Li, Maofen & Huang, Jiajian & Li, Hailiang & Zhong, Tianjiao, 2025. "Comprehensive drought detection, spatiotemporal variations, and attribution across different agricultural climate zones in Eastern China using a copula-based drought index," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    5. Pan, Ying & Zhu, Yonghua & Lü, Haishen & Yagci, Ali Levent & Fu, Xiaolei & Liu, En & Xu, Haiting & Ding, Zhenzhou & Liu, Ruoyu, 2023. "Accuracy of agricultural drought indices and analysis of agricultural drought characteristics in China between 2000 and 2019," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    6. Lv, Aifeng & Yang, Xianglei & Zhang, Wenxiang & Han, Yan, 2025. "Integrated soil moisture fusion for enhanced agricultural drought monitoring in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 311(C).
    7. Miao Zhang & Xing Yuan & Zhenzhong Zeng & Ming Pan & Peili Wu & Jingfeng Xiao & Trevor F. Keenan, 2025. "A pronounced decline in northern vegetation resistance to flash droughts from 2001 to 2022," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, December.
    8. Alina Mukhtar & Aamina Batool & Zulfiqar Ali & Sadia Qamar & Saba Riaz & Saad Sh. Sammen, 2024. "A New Hybrid Weighted Regional Drought Index to Improve Regional Drought Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(14), pages 5541-5558, November.
    9. Liu, Xiaoyin & Li, Peixin & Shen, Yifan & Lv, Yuping & Liao, Linxian & Wei, Jia & Xu, Junzeng, 2025. "Agricultural rapid-onset droughts in southern China’s grain-producing regions: Spatiotemporal evolution and potential drought-crop risks," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    10. Jinhua Wen & Yian Hua & Chenkai Cai & Shiwu Wang & Helong Wang & Xinyan Zhou & Jian Huang & Jianqun Wang, 2023. "Probabilistic Forecast and Risk Assessment of Flash Droughts Based on Numeric Weather Forecast: A Case Study in Zhejiang, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-20, February.
    11. Yuquan Qu & Diego G. Miralles & Sander Veraverbeke & Harry Vereecken & Carsten Montzka, 2023. "Wildfire precursors show complementary predictability in different timescales," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    12. Qifei Zhang & Congjian Sun & Yaning Chen & Wei Chen & Yanyun Xiang & Jiao Li & Yuting Liu, 2022. "Recent Oasis Dynamics and Ecological Security in the Tarim River Basin, Central Asia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-21, March.
    13. Alan F. Hamlet & Nima Ehsani & Jennifer L. Tank & Zachariah Silver & Kyuhyun Byun & Ursula H. Mahl & Shannon L. Speir & Matt T. Trentman & Todd V. Royer, 2024. "Effects of climate and winter cover crops on nutrient loss in agricultural watersheds in the midwestern U.S," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-21, January.
    14. Liu, Xiaoxu & Liu, Xiaomin & Yang, Yaotian & Yu, Miao & Tian, Hailong, 2024. "The productivity anomalies and economic losses of different grassland ecosystems caused by flash drought," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 305(C).
    15. Wang, Fei & Lai, Hexin & Li, Yanbin & Feng, Kai & Zhang, Zezhong & Tian, Qingqing & Zhu, Xiaomeng & Yang, Haibo, 2022. "Dynamic variation of meteorological drought and its relationships with agricultural drought across China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    16. Yi Yang & Hai Lin & Yi Xu & Hang Pan & Guangtao Dong & Jianping Tang, 2025. "Future projections of precipitation extremes over East Asia based on a deep learning downscaled CMIP6 high-resolution (0.1°) dataset," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(1), pages 1-20, January.
    17. Wang, Junping & Xue, Baolin & Wang, Guoqiang & Fang, Qingqing, 2026. "Contrasting vegetation responses to drought indicated by model simulations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 512(C).
    18. Yanchao Zhu & Peng Yang & Jun Xia & Heqing Huang & Yaning Chen & Lanhai Li & Kaiya Sun & Jingxia Song & Xiaorui Shi & Xixi Lu, 2025. "Differential impact of flash droughts on water use efficiency in terrestrial ecosystems in Central Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 1-20, March.
    19. Zhang, Yu & Liu, Xiaohong & Jiao, Wenzhe & Zhao, Liangju & Zeng, Xiaomin & Xing, Xiaoyu & Zhang, Lingnan & Hong, Yixue & Lu, Qiangqiang, 2022. "A new multi-variable integrated framework for identifying flash drought in the Loess Plateau and Qinling Mountains regions of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 265(C).
    20. Ayşegül Kuzucu & Gülay Onuşluel Gül, 2023. "Analysis of Drought Dynamics over Annual Maximum Drought Severity Series Based on Daily Index Definitions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1421-1436, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:323:y:2026:i:c:s0378377425008236. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.