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Unravelling spatiotemporal propagation processes among meteorological, soil, and evaporative flash droughts from a three-dimensional perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Hu, Chen
  • She, Dunxian
  • Wang, Gangsheng
  • Zhang, Liping
  • Jing, Zhaoxia
  • Song, Zhihong
  • Xia, Jun

Abstract

Flash droughts, defined by their rapid development and intensification, have received growing attention due to their severe impacts. Understanding the mechanisms and evolutions of flash drought events is crucial for early warning and mitigation. However, research on the propagation processes among different flash drought types remains limited. Here we developed a spatiotemporal matching framework to identify propagation processes among meteorological, soil, and evaporative flash droughts from a three-dimensional perspective, applying it to the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin (MLRYRB) from 2000 to 2022. Additionally, we utilized the random forest model to identify critical factors influencing flash drought propagation. Results showed that among three flash drought types, evaporative flash droughts exhibited the lowest number, duration, and severity, while soil flash droughts displayed the highest. The spatiotemporal matching framework identified 21 meteorological-soil, 12 meteorological-evaporative, 10 soil-evaporative, 19 evaporative-soil, 8 meteorological-soil-evaporative, and 4 meteorological-evaporative-soil flash drought propagation events in the MLRYRB, whereas minor flash droughts with short durations and limited areas failed to pair. Propagation towards evaporative flash droughts was associated with reduced duration, areas, and severity, while intensifying characteristics of flash droughts were observed in the propagation towards soil flash droughts. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and temperature were the main factors influencing propagations toward soil and evaporative flash droughts, respectively. Our findings can provide valuable insights into flash drought propagation processes and mechanisms, aiding in the establishment of flash drought early warning system and supporting policymakers in formulating adaptive agricultural water supply polices.

Suggested Citation

  • Hu, Chen & She, Dunxian & Wang, Gangsheng & Zhang, Liping & Jing, Zhaoxia & Song, Zhihong & Xia, Jun, 2025. "Unravelling spatiotemporal propagation processes among meteorological, soil, and evaporative flash droughts from a three-dimensional perspective," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:308:y:2025:i:c:s0378377425000083
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109294
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aiguo Dai, 2011. "Drought under global warming: a review," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(1), pages 45-65, January.
    2. Jordan I. Christian & Jeffrey B. Basara & Eric D. Hunt & Jason A. Otkin & Jason C. Furtado & Vimal Mishra & Xiangming Xiao & Robb M. Randall, 2021. "Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Yamin Qing & Shuo Wang & Brian C. Ancell & Zong-Liang Yang, 2022. "Accelerating flash droughts induced by the joint influence of soil moisture depletion and atmospheric aridity," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Xing Yuan & Linying Wang & Peili Wu & Peng Ji & Justin Sheffield & Miao Zhang, 2019. "Anthropogenic shift towards higher risk of flash drought over China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
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    1. Hu, Chen & She, Dunxian & Zhang, Liping & Wang, Gangsheng & Jing, Zhaoxia & Hong, Si & Xia, Jun, 2026. "Atmospheric dryness and flash drought severity drive the shifts of different flash drought types into agricultural droughts," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 323(C).

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