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A New Hybrid Weighted Regional Drought Index to Improve Regional Drought Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Alina Mukhtar

    (University of The Punjab)

  • Aamina Batool

    (University of The Punjab)

  • Zulfiqar Ali

    (University of The Punjab)

  • Sadia Qamar

    (University of Sargodha)

  • Saba Riaz

    (Rawalpindi Women University)

  • Saad Sh. Sammen

    (University of Diyala)

Abstract

Unlike other natural disasters, the temporal characteristics of drought are complex. Therefore, accurate drought monitoring and assessment using advanced statistical and machine learning techniques are essential. This research develops a new regional drought indicator – the Seasonally Weighted Regional Standardized Drought Index (SWRSDI). The methodology for SWRSDI introduces a new regional data aggregation scheme called the Seasonal Interdependence and Discrepancy-based Weighting Scheme (SIDWS). The SIDWS scheme divides the data into twelve distinct seasons and assigns weights based on two criteria: 1) seasonal interdependence and 2) seasonal divergence. In application, we compared the performance of SIDWS with the regional aggregation scheme used in the Seasonally Combinative Regional Drought Indicator (SCRDI) and Simple Model Average (SMA) using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) metrics. To estimate SWRSDI values, we standardized the regionally aggregated precipitation data under SIDWS using K-Components Gaussian Mixture Models (K-CGMM). The outcomes of this research demonstrate the superiority of using SIDWS for regional data aggregation. This conclusion is based on the lower values of MAE (1.9735 vs. 2.8983), NRMSE (0.0322 vs. 0.0485), and RMSE (3.0981 vs. 4.4025). Additionally, the study achieves high accuracy in standardization by using a probability-based standardization mixture. The selection criteria advocate the high accuracy of K-CGMM-based estimation of drought indices. Overall, this article provides a more rational and effective procedure for assessing, monitoring, and forecasting drought at the regional level.

Suggested Citation

  • Alina Mukhtar & Aamina Batool & Zulfiqar Ali & Sadia Qamar & Saba Riaz & Saad Sh. Sammen, 2024. "A New Hybrid Weighted Regional Drought Index to Improve Regional Drought Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(14), pages 5541-5558, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:38:y:2024:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-024-03920-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-024-03920-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dianxi Zhang & Muhammad Safdar Sial & Naveed Ahmad & António José Filipe & Phung Anh Thu & Malik Zia-Ud-Din & António Bento Caleiro, 2020. "Water Scarcity and Sustainability in an Emerging Economy: A Management Perspective for Future," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. David Gampe & Jakob Zscheischler & Markus Reichstein & Michael O’Sullivan & William K. Smith & Stephen Sitch & Wolfgang Buermann, 2021. "Increasing impact of warm droughts on northern ecosystem productivity over recent decades," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(9), pages 772-779, September.
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    4. Zulfiqar Ali & Sadia Qamar & Nasrulla Khan & Muhammad Faisal & Saad Sh. Sammen, 2023. "A New Regional Drought Index under X-bar Chart Based Weighting Scheme – The Quality Boosted Regional Drought Index (QBRDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(5), pages 1895-1911, March.
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