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SPI-Based Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Areal Extent in Sicily

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  • Brunella Bonaccorso
  • David Peres
  • Antonio Castano
  • Antonino Cancelliere

Abstract

Drought is a natural phenomenon that presents spatial and temporal features whose knowledge is fundamental for an appropriate water resources management. In particular, the assessment of probabilities and return periods of areal extent of droughts of different severities over a region can provide useful information for planning drought management. In this study, an analytical methodology to characterize probabilistically the relationship between meteorological drought severity (computed in terms of Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI) and areal extent, expressed as Drought severity-Area-Frequency (SAF) curves, is proposed. In particular, analytical expressions of SAF curves describing the proportion of the total area of the region of interest where the SPI values are below a fixed threshold are derived. The developed curves enable to characterize a given drought event in a region, by computing the probability of occurrence of SAF curves exceeding the one observed. The proposed methodology is validated through the investigation of the spatio-temporal features of drought occurrences over Sicily, Italy, for the period 1921–2005. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Brunella Bonaccorso & David Peres & Antonio Castano & Antonino Cancelliere, 2015. "SPI-Based Probabilistic Analysis of Drought Areal Extent in Sicily," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(2), pages 459-470, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:2:p:459-470
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-014-0673-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tayeb Raziei & Isabella Bordi & Luis Pereira, 2011. "An Application of GPCC and NCEP/NCAR Datasets for Drought Variability Analysis in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(4), pages 1075-1086, March.
    2. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    3. Brunella Bonaccorso & David Peres & Antonino Cancelliere & Giuseppe Rossi, 2013. "Large Scale Probabilistic Drought Characterization Over Europe," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(6), pages 1675-1692, April.
    4. Tayeb Raziei & Isabella Bordi & Luis Pereira, 2013. "Regional Drought Modes in Iran Using the SPI: The Effect of Time Scale and Spatial Resolution," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(6), pages 1661-1674, April.
    5. Sergio Vicente-Serrano, 2006. "Differences in Spatial Patterns of Drought on Different Time Scales: An Analysis of the Iberian Peninsula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(1), pages 37-60, February.
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    2. Jew Das & N. V. Umamahesh, 2018. "Spatio-Temporal Variation of Water Availability in a River Basin under CORDEX Simulated Future Projections," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(4), pages 1399-1419, March.
    3. Jenq-Tzong Shiau & Jia-Wei Lin, 2016. "Clustering Quantile Regression-Based Drought Trends in Taiwan," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1053-1069, February.
    4. George Tsakiris & Nikos Kordalis & Dimitris Tigkas & Vasileios Tsakiris & Harris Vangelis, 2016. "Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5723-5735, December.
    5. Ting Wei & Songbai Song, 2022. "Comparison of Frequency Calculation Methods for Precipitation Series Containing Zero Values," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(2), pages 527-550, January.
    6. Antonino Cancelliere, 2017. "Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3097-3110, August.

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