IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v295y2024ics0378377424001070.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sub-seasonal soil moisture anomaly forecasting using combinations of deep learning, based on the reanalysis soil moisture records

Author

Listed:
  • Wang, Xiaoyi
  • Corzo, Gerald
  • Lü, Haishen
  • Zhou, Shiliang
  • Mao, Kangmin
  • Zhu, Yonghua
  • Duarte, Santiago
  • Liu, Mingwen
  • Su, Jianbin

Abstract

Sub-seasonal drought forecasting is crucial for early warning in estimating agricultural production and optimizing irrigation management, as forecasting skills are relatively weak during this period. Soil moisture exhibits stronger persistence compared to other climate system quantities, which makes it especially influential in shaping land-atmosphere feedback, thus supplying a unique insight into drought forecasting. Relying on the soil moisture memory, this study investigates the combination of multiple deep-learning modules for sub-seasonal drought indices hindcast in the Huai River basin of China, using long-term ERA5-Land soil moisture records with a noise-assisted data analysis tool. The inter-compared deep-learning models include a hybrid model and a committee machine framework. The results show that the performance of the committee machine framework can be improved with the help of series decomposition and the forecasting skill is not impaired with the lead time increases. Overall, this study highlights the potential of combining deep-learning models with soil moisture memory analysis to improve sub-seasonal drought forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xiaoyi & Corzo, Gerald & Lü, Haishen & Zhou, Shiliang & Mao, Kangmin & Zhu, Yonghua & Duarte, Santiago & Liu, Mingwen & Su, Jianbin, 2024. "Sub-seasonal soil moisture anomaly forecasting using combinations of deep learning, based on the reanalysis soil moisture records," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 295(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:295:y:2024:i:c:s0378377424001070
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2024.108772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424001070
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2024.108772?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Corey Lesk & Pedram Rowhani & Navin Ramankutty, 2016. "Influence of extreme weather disasters on global crop production," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7584), pages 84-87, January.
    2. D. Joksas & P. Freitas & Z. Chai & W. H. Ng & M. Buckwell & C. Li & W. D. Zhang & Q. Xia & A. J. Kenyon & A. Mehonic, 2020. "Committee machines—a universal method to deal with non-idealities in memristor-based neural networks," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Yu, Jingxin & Zhang, Xin & Xu, Linlin & Dong, Jing & Zhangzhong, Lili, 2021. "A hybrid CNN-GRU model for predicting soil moisture in maize root zone," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).
    4. Zhiyong Wu & Huihui Feng & Hai He & Jianhong Zhou & Yuliang Zhang, 2021. "Evaluation of Soil Moisture Climatology and Anomaly Components Derived From ERA5-Land and GLDAS-2.1 in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(2), pages 629-643, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xiao, Xin & Ming, Wenting & Luo, Xuan & Yang, Luyi & Li, Meng & Yang, Pengwu & Ji, Xuan & Li, Yungang, 2024. "Leveraging multisource data for accurate agricultural drought monitoring: A hybrid deep learning model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    2. He, Liuyue & Xu, Zhenci & Wang, Sufen & Bao, Jianxia & Fan, Yunfei & Daccache, Andre, 2022. "Optimal crop planting pattern can be harmful to reach carbon neutrality: Evidence from food-energy-water-carbon nexus perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 308(C).
    3. El-Saied E. Metwaly & Hatim M. Al-Yasi & Esmat F. Ali & Hamada A. Farouk & Saad Farouk, 2022. "Deteriorating Harmful Effects of Drought in Cucumber by Spraying Glycinebetaine," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, December.
    4. repec:ags:aaea22:335489 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit, 2024. "Historical Analysis of the Effects of Drought on Rice and Maize Yields in Southeast Asia," Resources, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-18, March.
    6. Liu, Zhipeng & Jiao, Xiyun & Zhu, Chengli & Katul, Gabriel G. & Ma, Junyong & Guo, Weihua, 2021. "Micro-climatic and crop responses to micro-sprinkler irrigation," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    7. Teresa Armada Brás & Jonas Jägermeyr & Júlia Seixas, 2019. "Exposure of the EU-28 food imports to extreme weather disasters in exporting countries," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(6), pages 1373-1393, December.
    8. Yusifzada, Tural, 2022. "Response of Inflation to the Climate Stress: Evidence from Azerbaijan," MPRA Paper 116522, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Sep 2022.
    9. Dániel Fróna & János Szenderák & Mónika Harangi-Rákos, 2019. "The Challenge of Feeding the World," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-18, October.
    10. Balázs Varga & Zsuzsanna Farkas & Emese Varga-László & Gyula Vida & Ottó Veisz, 2022. "Elevated Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Influences the Rooting Habits of Winter-Wheat ( Triticum aestivum L.) Varieties," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Deng, Juntao & Pan, Shijia & Zhou, Mingu & Gao, Wen & Yan, Yuncai & Niu, Zijie & Han, Wenting, 2023. "Optimum sampling window size and vegetation index selection for low-altitude multispectral estimation of root soil moisture content for Xuxiang Kiwifruit," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    12. Zhang, Qingsong & Sun, Jiahao & Dai, Changlei & Zhang, Guangxin & Wu, Yanfeng, 2024. "Sustainable development of groundwater resources under the large-scale conversion of dry land into rice fields," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    13. Qimeng Pan & Lysa Porth & Hong Li, 2022. "Assessing the Effectiveness of the Actuaries Climate Index for Estimating the Impact of Extreme Weather on Crop Yield and Insurance Applications," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-24, June.
    14. Alejandro del Pozo & Nidia Brunel-Saldias & Alejandra Engler & Samuel Ortega-Farias & Cesar Acevedo-Opazo & Gustavo A. Lobos & Roberto Jara-Rojas & Marco A. Molina-Montenegro, 2019. "Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies of Agriculture in Mediterranean-Climate Regions (MCRs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-16, May.
    15. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    16. Kelly R. Wilson & Robert L. Myers & Mary K. Hendrickson & Emily A. Heaton, 2022. "Different Stakeholders’ Conceptualizations and Perspectives of Regenerative Agriculture Reveals More Consensus Than Discord," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-14, November.
    17. Carl-Friedrich Schleussner & Joeri Rogelj & Michiel Schaeffer & Tabea Lissner & Rachel Licker & Erich M. Fischer & Reto Knutti & Anders Levermann & Katja Frieler & William Hare, 2016. "Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(9), pages 827-835, September.
    18. Randell, Heather & Jiang, Chengsheng & Liang, Xin-Zhong & Murtugudde, Raghu & Sapkota, Amir, 2021. "Food insecurity and compound environmental shocks in Nepal: Implications for a changing climate," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    19. Khan,Amjad Muhammad & Kuate,Landry & Pongou,Roland & Zhang,Fan, 2024. "Weather, Water, and Work : Climatic Water Variability and Labor MarketOutcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10823, The World Bank.
    20. Sahrish Saeed & Muhammad Sohail Amjad Makhdum & Sofia Anwar & Muhammad Rizwan Yaseen, 2023. "Climate Change Vulnerability, Adaptation, and Feedback Hypothesis: A Comparison of Lower-Middle, Upper-Middle, and High-Income Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-25, February.
    21. Marmai, Nadin & Franco Villoria, Maria & Guerzoni, Marco, 2016. "How the Black Swan damages the harvest: statistical modelling of extreme events in weather and crop production in Africa, Asia, and Latin America," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis LEI & BRICK - Laboratory of Economics of Innovation "Franco Momigliano", Bureau of Research in Innovation, Complexity and Knowledge, Collegio 201605, University of Turin.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:295:y:2024:i:c:s0378377424001070. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.