IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agisys/v224y2025ics0308521x24003652.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decomposing the total uncertainty in wheat modeling: an analysis of model structure, parameters, weather data inputs, and squared bias contributions

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng, Jinhui
  • Zhang, Shuai

Abstract

The comparison of agricultural models and the conduct of crop improvement research have garnered significant attention in recent times. One of the primary objectives in this field is to pinpoint and mitigate the uncertainties inherent in modeling the effects of climate on crop growth and productivity. Enhancing the precision and reliability of crop models has emerged as a critical concern.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng, Jinhui & Zhang, Shuai, 2025. "Decomposing the total uncertainty in wheat modeling: an analysis of model structure, parameters, weather data inputs, and squared bias contributions," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:224:y:2025:i:c:s0308521x24003652
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308521X24003652
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.104215?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wang, Enli & Engel, Thomas, 1998. "Simulation of phenological development of wheat crops," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Anshuman Gunawat & Devesh Sharma & Aditya Sharma & Swatantra Kumar Dubey, 2022. "Assessment of climate change impact and potential adaptation measures on wheat yield using the DSSAT model in the semi-arid environment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 111(2), pages 2077-2096, March.
    3. S. Asseng & F. Ewert & C. Rosenzweig & J. W. Jones & J. L. Hatfield & A. C. Ruane & K. J. Boote & P. J. Thorburn & R. P. Rötter & D. Cammarano & N. Brisson & B. Basso & P. Martre & P. K. Aggarwal & C., 2013. "Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(9), pages 827-832, September.
    4. Ishaque, Wajid & Osman, Raheel & Hafiza, Barira Shoukat & Malghani, Saadatullah & Zhao, Ben & Xu, Ming & Ata-Ul-Karim, Syed Tahir, 2023. "Quantifying the impacts of climate change on wheat phenology, yield, and evapotranspiration under irrigated and rainfed conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    5. Ceglar, A. & van der Wijngaart, R. & de Wit, A. & Lecerf, R. & Boogaard, H. & Seguini, L. & van den Berg, M. & Toreti, A. & Zampieri, M. & Fumagalli, D. & Baruth, B., 2019. "Improving WOFOST model to simulate winter wheat phenology in Europe: Evaluation and effects on yield," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 168-180.
    6. McCown, R. L. & Hammer, G. L. & Hargreaves, J. N. G. & Holzworth, D. P. & Freebairn, D. M., 1996. "APSIM: a novel software system for model development, model testing and simulation in agricultural systems research," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 255-271.
    7. He, Liming & Chen, Jing M. & Liu, Jane & Mo, Gang & Bélair, Stéphane & Zheng, Ting & Wang, Rong & Chen, Bin & Croft, Holly & Arain, M.Altaf & Barr, Alan G., 2014. "Optimization of water uptake and photosynthetic parameters in an ecosystem model using tower flux data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 294(C), pages 94-104.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jinhui Zheng & Shuai Zhang, 2025. "Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Winter Wheat Production in the North China Plain from 1980 to 2020," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ahmed, Mukhtar & Bilal, Muhammad & Ahmad, Shakeel, 2024. "Simulation of source sink partitioning in wheat under varying nitrogen regimes using DSSAT-CERES-wheat model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    2. Keikha, Mahdi & Darzi- Naftchali, Abdullah & Motevali, Ali & Valipour, Mohammad, 2023. "Effect of nitrogen management on the environmental and economic sustainability of wheat production in different climates," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).
    3. Yunfeng Li & Quanqing Feng & Dongwei Li & Mingfa Li & Huifeng Ning & Qisheng Han & Abdoul Kader Mounkaila Hamani & Yang Gao & Jingsheng Sun, 2022. "Water-Salt Thresholds of Cotton ( Gossypium hirsutum L.) under Film Drip Irrigation in Arid Saline-Alkali Area," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-21, October.
    4. Hao, Shirui & Ryu, Dongryeol & Western, Andrew W & Perry, Eileen & Bogena, Heye & Franssen, Harrie Jan Hendricks, 2024. "Global sensitivity analysis of APSIM-wheat yield predictions to model parameters and inputs," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).
    5. Licheng Liu & Wang Zhou & Kaiyu Guan & Bin Peng & Shaoming Xu & Jinyun Tang & Qing Zhu & Jessica Till & Xiaowei Jia & Chongya Jiang & Sheng Wang & Ziqi Qin & Hui Kong & Robert Grant & Symon Mezbahuddi, 2024. "Knowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    6. Qureshi, Muhammad Ejaz & Arunakumaren, J. & Bajracharya, K. & Wegener, Malcolm K. & Qureshi, S.E. & Bristow, Keith L., 2002. "Economic and environmental impacts of groundwater management scenarios in Burdekin Delta," 2002 Conference (46th), February 13-15, 2002, Canberra, Australia 125148, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    7. Shekhar, Ankit & Shapiro, Charles A., 2022. "Prospective crop yield and income return based on a retrospective analysis of a long-term rainfed agriculture experiment in Nebraska," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    8. Negm, L.M. & Youssef, M.A. & Skaggs, R.W. & Chescheir, G.M. & Jones, J., 2014. "DRAINMOD–DSSAT model for simulating hydrology, soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and crop growth for drained crop land," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 30-45.
    9. Paff, K. & Timlin, D. & Fleisher, D.H., 2023. "A comparison of wheat leaf-appearance rate submodules for DSSAT CROPSIM-CERES (CSCER)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).
    10. Jing Wang & Feng Fang & Qiang Zhang & Jinsong Wang & Yubi Yao & Wei Wang, 2016. "Risk evaluation of agricultural disaster impacts on food production in southern China by probability density method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1605-1634, September.
    11. Jagadish Padhiary & Kanhu Charan Patra & Sonam Sandeep Dash, 2022. "A Novel Approach to Identify the Characteristics of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenario," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5163-5189, October.
    12. Feike, Til & Henseler, Martin, 2017. "Multiple Policy Instruments for Sustainable Water Management in Crop Production - A Modeling Study for the Chinese Aksu-Tarim Region," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 42-54.
    13. Unknown, 1997. "A New Soil Conservation Methodology and Application to Cropping Systems in Tropical Steeplands: A comparative synthesis of results obtained in ACIAR Project PN 9201," Technical Reports 113906, Australian Centre for International Agricultural Research.
    14. Meinke, H. & Baethgen, W. E. & Carberry, P. S. & Donatelli, M. & Hammer, G. L. & Selvaraju, R. & Stockle, C. O., 2001. "Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 70(2-3), pages 493-513.
    15. Bohan, David & Schmucki, Reto & Abay, Abrha & Termansen, Mette & Bane, Miranda & Charalabiis, Alice & Cong, Rong-Gang & Derocles, Stephane & Dorner, Zita & Forster, Matthieu & Gibert, Caroline & Harro, 2020. "Designing farmer-acceptable rotations that assure ecosystem service provision inthe face of climate change," MPRA Paper 112313, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Marco Bascietto & Enrico Santangelo & Claudio Beni, 2021. "Spatial Variations of Vegetation Index from Remote Sensing Linked to Soil Colloidal Status," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, January.
    17. Probert, M. E. & Dimes, J. P. & Keating, B. A. & Dalal, R. C. & Strong, W. M., 1998. "APSIM's water and nitrogen modules and simulation of the dynamics of water and nitrogen in fallow systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-28, January.
    18. Cabelguenne, M. & Debaeke, P. & Bouniols, A., 1999. "EPICphase, a version of the EPIC model simulating the effects of water and nitrogen stress on biomass and yield, taking account of developmental stages: validation on maize, sunflower, sorghum, soybea," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 175-196, June.
    19. Adina-Eliza Croitoru & Titus Cristian Man & Sorin Daniel Vâtcă & Bela Kobulniczky & Vlad Stoian, 2020. "Refining the Spatial Scale for Maize Crop Agro-Climatological Suitability Conditions in a Region with Complex Topography towards a Smart and Sustainable Agriculture. Case Study: Central Romania (Cluj ," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-17, April.
    20. Ojeda, Jonathan J. & Huth, Neil & Holzworth, Dean & Raymundo, Rubí & Zyskowski, Robert F. & Sinton, Sarah M. & Michel, Alexandre J. & Brown, Hamish E., 2021. "Assessing errors during simulation configuration in crop models – A global case study using APSIM-Potato," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 458(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:224:y:2025:i:c:s0308521x24003652. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agsy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.