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Combining participatory approaches and an agent-based model for better planning shrimp aquaculture

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  • Joffre, Olivier M.
  • Bosma, Roel H.
  • Ligtenberg, Arend
  • Tri, Van Pham Dang
  • Ha, Tran Thi Phung
  • Bregt, Arnold K.

Abstract

In the Mekong Delta coastal zone, decision makers must weigh trade-offs between sustaining the shrimp sector and thus ensuring economic development, while also promoting sustainable, environmentally friendly practices and planning for climate change adaptation. This study investigates future scenarios for development of shrimp aquaculture using a spatially explicit, agent-based model (ABM) simulating farmers' production system choices. A role playing game (RPG) with farmers was used to calibrate and validate the model. Four scenarios, representing different visions of aquaculture in the next 15years, were elaborated with decision makers before discussing the different outputs of the model. Iterative consultation with farmers helped to fine-tune the model and identify key parameters and drivers in farmers' decision-making. The recursive process allowed us to construct a model that validly represents reality. Participants stated that use of the RPG improved their insight for planning. Results of the scenarios indicate that (i) intensification of production is unsustainable, (ii) market-based incentives are too limited to stimulate development of an integrated mangrove–shrimp production system and (iii) climate change will cause rapid decline of production in the absence of adaptation measures. RPG appeared to be a valuable method for formalizing local farmers' knowledge and integrating it into the planning approaches used by decision makers. The ABM, thus, can also be considered a medium or communication tool facilitating knowledge-sharing between farmers and decision makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Joffre, Olivier M. & Bosma, Roel H. & Ligtenberg, Arend & Tri, Van Pham Dang & Ha, Tran Thi Phung & Bregt, Arnold K., 2015. "Combining participatory approaches and an agent-based model for better planning shrimp aquaculture," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 149-159.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:141:y:2015:i:c:p:149-159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.10.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michel Etienne, 2003. "SYLVOPAST: a Multiple Target Role-Playing Game to Assess Negotiation Processes in Sylvopastoral Management Planning," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 6(2), pages 1-5.
    2. Thuy T.H. Nguyen & Andrew Ford, 2010. "Learning from the Neighbors: Economic and Environmental Impacts from Intensive Shrimp Farming in the Mekong Delta of Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 2(7), pages 1-19, July.
    3. Christophe Le Page & Nicolas Becu & Pierre Bommel & François Bousquet, 2012. "Participatory Agent-Based Simulation for Renewable Resource Management: The Role of the Cormas Simulation Platform to Nurture a Community of Practice," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10.
    4. Olivier Barreteau & François Bousquet & Jean-Marie Attonaty, 2001. "Role-Playing Games for Opening the Black Box of Multi-Agent Systems: Method and Lessons of Its Application to Senegal River Valley Irrigated Systems," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 4(2), pages 1-5.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jlenia Di Noia, 2022. "Agent-Based Models for Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Zones. A Review," Working Papers 2022.20, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. M., Jayanthi & T., Ravisankar & G., Nagaraj & S., Thirumurthy & M., Muralidhar & R., Saraswathy, 2019. "Is aquaculture abandonment a threat to sustainable coastal resource use? – A case study of Andhra Pradesh, India, with options for reuse," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 54-66.
    3. Stewart-Koster, Ben & Dieu Anh, Nguyen & Burford, Michele A. & Condon, Jason & Qui, Nguyen Van & Hiep, Le Huu & Bay, Doan Van & Sammut, Jesmond, 2017. "Expert based model building to quantify risk factors in a combined aquaculture-agriculture system," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 230-240.
    4. Di Noia, Jlenia, 2022. "Agent-Based Models for Climate Change Adaptation in Coastal Zones. A Review," FEEM Working Papers 322810, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    5. Clark, Matt & Andrews, Jeffrey & Hillis, Vicken, 2022. "A quantitative application of diffusion of innovations for modeling the spread of conservation behaviors," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 473(C).
    6. Yamashita, Ryohei & Hoshino, Satoshi, 2018. "Development of an agent-based model for estimation of agricultural land preservation in rural Japan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 264-276.
    7. Mehdi Hafezi & Oz Sahin & Rodney A. Stewart & Brendan Mackey, 2018. "Creating a Novel Multi-Layered Integrative Climate Change Adaptation Planning Approach Using a Systematic Literature Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-30, November.

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