Modeling and Forecasting Energy Consumption in the Manufacturing Industry in South Asia
The aim of this study is to model energy consumption and Manufacturing Value Added (MVA) in the industry level of five South Asian countries. Firstly, a cross-sectional model was developed by using R-statistical software to estimate the MVA with energy consumption being the independent variable. Secondly, a twenty years data series was analyzed to forecast volume of energy consumption in the manufacturing industry for five countries in a comparative manner. Thus, a prediction model was developed by using the time series forecasting system of the SAS statistical software and evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) with forecasts made up to year 2021. The forecasted energy consumption data might be used in the cross-sectional model to forecast MVA. Besides, based on the increasing trends in volume of energy, industry should prepare now for using efficient and clean energy in order to achieve an environment friendly and sustainable manufacturing industry.
Volume (Year): 3 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.econjournals.com|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
- Mahmud, Syed F., 2000. "The energy demand in the manufacturing sector of Pakistan: some further results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 641-648, December.
- Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "Energy consumption and growth in South America: Evidence from a panel error correction model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1421-1426, November.
- David I. Stern, 1998.
"A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the U.S. macroeconomy,"
Working Papers in Ecological Economics
9803, Australian National University, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Ecological Economics Program.
- Stern, David I., 2000. "A multivariate cointegration analysis of the role of energy in the US macroeconomy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 267-283, April.
- Evan Lau & Xiao-Hui Chye & Chee-Keong Choong, 2011. "Energy-Growth Causality: Asian Countries Revisited," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(4), pages 140-149.
- Santosh Kumar Sahu & Krishnan Narayanan, 2011. "Total Factor Productivity and Energy Intensity in Indian Manufacturing: A Cross-Sectional Study," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(2), pages 47-58, September.
- Taylor, James W., 2003. "Exponential smoothing with a damped multiplicative trend," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 715-725.
- Nicholas Apergisu & Dan Danuletiu, 2012. "Energy Consumption and Growth in Romania: Evidence from a Panel Error Correction Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 348-356.
- Ansgar Belke & Christian Dreger & Frauke de Haan, 2010.
"Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: New Insights into the Cointegration Relationship,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
1017, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
- Belke, Ansgar & Dreger, Christian & de Haan, Frauke, 2010. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth – New Insights into the Cointegration Relationship," Ruhr Economic Papers 190, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
- R. Stresing & D. Lindenberger & R. Kümmel, 2008. "Cointegration of output, capital, labor, and energy," The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 279-287, November.
- Muhammad Arshad Khan & Abdul Qayyum, 2007. "Dynamic Modelling of Energy and Growth in South Asia," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 46(4), pages 481-498.
- Rehana Siddiqui, 2004. "Energy and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 175-200.
- Kaplan, Muhittin & Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 31-41, June.
- Phung Thanh Binh, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Vietnam: Threshold Cointegration and Causality Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, June.
- Ozturk, Ilhan & Aslan, Alper & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2010. "Energy consumption and economic growth relationship: Evidence from panel data for low and middle income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4422-4428, August.
- McKenzie, Eddie & Gardner Jr., Everette S., 2010. "Damped trend exponential smoothing: A modelling viewpoint," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 661-665, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2013-01-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ilhan Ozturk)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.