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Where did it all go wrong for Russia in the 21st Century?

Author

Listed:
  • Ivan Korolev

    (Binghamton University)

Abstract

This paper uses the synthetic control method to predict how Russia could have developed under different scenarios in the 21st century. I construct the counterfactual for Russia starting in 2008, when Vladimir Putin's first tenure as president ended; starting in 2012, when Putin became president again; and starting in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and the Donbas War began. I find that Russia's GDP per capita growth path did not change after the presidential changes of 2008 or 2012; however, after the annexation of Crimea and the start of the Donbas War, the actual GDP per capita lagged behind the counterfactual one, with the gap between them reaching about 20% by 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Ivan Korolev, 2025. "Where did it all go wrong for Russia in the 21st Century?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 45(3), pages 1170-1193.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-24-00139
    as

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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2025/Volume45/EB-25-V45-I3-P103.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter Dreuw, 2023. "Structural time series models and synthetic controls—assessing the impact of the euro adoption," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 681-725, February.
    2. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

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