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Role of Global Uncertainty: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

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  • Jongrim Ha

    (World Bank)

Abstract

By estimating a wide range of factor-augmented vector autoregression models, I investigate the role of global uncertainty on global financial asset and oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic. The results suggest that the global uncertainty shock explained from a third to three fifths of total variations in the variables after the pandemic, which impacts are two to four times as sizeable as what are assessed based on the pre-pandemic period. The shocks were in nature demand-driven; higher global uncertainty was associated with significant declines in global stock prices, implied inflation, economic activity, and oil prices. However, the shocks led to significant rise in global interest rates, possibly reflecting raised term and risk premia.

Suggested Citation

  • Jongrim Ha, 2022. "Role of Global Uncertainty: Evidence from COVID-19 Pandemic," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(2), pages 1002-1031.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-22-00346
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    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2022/Volume42/EB-22-V42-I2-P86.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global Financial Uncertainty; Equity price; Implied Inflation; Oil Price; Interest Rate; COVID-19; FAVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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