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Bias-Trigger Manipulation and Task-Form Understanding in Monty Hall

Author

Listed:
  • Kim Kaivanto

    (Lancaster University)

  • Eike B. Kroll

    (Otto-von-Guericke University Magdeburg)

  • Michael Zabinski

    (Trinity College Dublin)

Abstract

Monty Hall is a difficult task which triggers multiple biases. With sophisticated subjects and treatments that reverse and eliminate these triggers, non-rational choice is greatly reduced. Among task-familiar subjects, non-rational choice can can fall to background-error levels. But as our data also show, task-form recognition is necessary but not sufficient for rational choice when the task calls for conditional probability reasoning rather than simple rule-based behavior, as in e.g. 'Switch in Monty Hall.' Task-form understanding, a more stringent requirement, proves to be necessary and sufficient for rational choice in generalized Monty Hall conditional probability reasoning tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim Kaivanto & Eike B. Kroll & Michael Zabinski, 2014. "Bias-Trigger Manipulation and Task-Form Understanding in Monty Hall," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 89-98.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00860
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaivanto, Kim & Kwon, Winston, 2015. "The Precautionary Principle as a Heuristic Patch," MPRA Paper 67036, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monty Hall; task-form understanding; bias triggers; default effect; illusion of control; errors of omission and commission;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • C9 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments

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