Contagion and causality: an empirical analysis on sovereign bond spreads
The current decade was marked by the worst economic and financial crisis since the Great Depression, many economies experiencing a severe contraction of output in late 2008 and early 2009. But, was this evolution of the activity only the result of the domestic factors or a certain form of international contagion influenced it, at least partially? The aim of this paper is to empirically explore the contagion phenomenon during the subprime crisis for seven EU and non-EU countries. To test for contagion, we apply a Granger causality/VECM methodology on sovereign bond spreads as a measure of perceived country risk. Following partially the methodology of Kleimeier and Sander (2003), we investigate two sub-periods: a pre-crisis tranquil period (January, 1st 2003-July 29, 2007) and a crisis period (July 2, 2007 -September 1, 2009). Results highlight the fact that the causality patterns have changed during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis tranquil period.
Volume (Year): 30 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew K & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996.
"Contagious Currency Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1453, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003.
"The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion,"
NBER Working Papers
10061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2003. "The unholy trinity of financial contagion," MPRA Paper 13878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2002. "Two Hundred Years of Contagion," MPRA Paper 13229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Van Rijckeghem, Caroline & Weder, Beatrice, 2001. "Sources of contagion: is it finance or trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 293-308, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-10-00286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.