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Who will win the Nobel Prize?

Author

Listed:
  • Terence tai-leung Chong

    (Department of Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong)

  • Cally Choi

    (London School of Economics)

  • Benjamin Everard

    (George Washington University)

Abstract

This paper identifies the determinants of the Nobel Prize Award. The analysis is analogous in spirit to Hamermesh and Schmidt (Econometrica, 2003) on the election of Econometric Society fellows. It is found that the number of citations, age and nationality have significant impacts on the odds of winning the Nobel. We provide the first statistical evidence that John Bates Clark medalists and individuals affiliated with the University of Chicago have a higher chance of winning the Prize.

Suggested Citation

  • Terence tai-leung Chong & Cally Choi & Benjamin Everard, 2009. "Who will win the Nobel Prize?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 1107-1116.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2009/Volume29/EB-09-V29-I2-P58.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel S. Hamermesh & Peter Schmidt, 2003. "The Determinants of Econometric Society Fellows Elections," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 399-407, January.
    2. Hendrik P. van Dalen, 1999. "The Golden Age of Nobel Economists," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 43(2), pages 19-35, October.
    3. Lindbeck, A., 1999. "The Price in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel - 1969-1998," Papers 668, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    4. Charles E. Scott & John J. Siegfried, 2019. "American Economic Association Universal Academic Questionnaire Summary Statistics," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 590-592, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ho F. Chan & Franklin G. Mixon & Benno Torgler, 2018. "Relation of early career performance and recognition to the probability of winning the Nobel Prize in economics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 114(3), pages 1069-1086, March.
    2. Deyo, Darwyyn, 2025. "Recovering history: Using the Nobel lectures to identify hidden women in economic thought," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Nan Wei & Zifeng Li & Quan Gao & Yi Yu & Jing Xie, 2026. "Unpacking time lags in Nobel Prize awards: a global and disciplinary perspective," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 131(3), pages 1655-1676, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • A1 - General Economics and Teaching - - General Economics
    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables

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