How do family transitions shape residential mobility among Quebec residents? Evidence on lagged, synchronous, and anticipatory effects by immigration status

Background: Quebec has experienced sustained immigration alongside profound transformations in family trajectories, reshaping residential needs across the life course. While prior research has mainly focused on synchronous links between family transitions and residential mobility, less attention has been paid to the combined role of anticipatory and lagged dynamics, particularly in relation to immigration status and heterogeneity within immigrant populations. Objective: This study examines how union formation, union dissolution, and childbirth influence residential mobility among Quebec residents, and how these temporal patterns vary between immigrants and non-immigrants, as well as across immigrant profiles defined by duration of residence and age at arrival. Methods: We use retrospective data from the 2020 TrajIPaQ survey, reconstructing residential and family histories for 2006–2019. The analytical sample includes 1,392 individuals (15,873 person-years). Residential mobility is modeled using discrete-time logistic regressions with individual fixed effects, incorporating one- to two-year leads and lags of family transitions. Models are estimated for the full sample and stratified by immigration characteristics. Results: Union formation is strongly associated with moving in the year of the event, with no clear anticipatory or lagged effects. Union dissolution displays contrasting temporal patterns: Among non-immigrants, mobility peaks two years after separation, whereas among immigrants – especially recent and adult arrivals – moves occur primarily in the year of rupture. Childbirth is linked to reduced mobility in the year of birth and the following year among non-immigrants, suggesting residential stabilization, while no synchronous effect is observed among immigrants. Evidence of anticipatory mobility before childbirth is limited and mainly visible among more established immigrants. Contribution: Family transitions shape residential mobility through distinct temporal configurations that vary by event type and immigration status. These findings underscore the value of dynamic, context-sensitive approaches to family mobility in immigrant-receiving societies.