The recent decline in women’s fertility intentions in Canada: The shift in the intention schedule and the puzzle for family policy

Background: Fertility has been decreasing in Canada since the 2008 financial crisis, as it has elsewhere. A key question is whether fertility has fallen because people cannot have the children they want, or because they want fewer children. Objective: We address the change in fertility intentions of Canadian women over the recent decades. Methods: We use data from seven surveys conducted between 1990 and 2021. We use a ‘pseudo-biographical’ approach that focuses on the probability of intending to have a specific number of children over the life course conditional on parity and age, which allows showing that intentions have a schedule. Results: Intentions have fallen since 2011, and especially since 2017. This fall aligns with the decline in fertility rates. The mean lifetime child-number intentions are now below the replacement level. The decrease is most noticeable among young women, about half of whom now begin their reproductive years intending to remain childless. The schedule of intentions varies across educational levels: more-educated women intend to have children later. Conclusions: The fertility intentions of Canadian women have decreased over the last 30 years. The main driver of the decrease seems to be the combined effect of decreasing intentions among childless women, and the increasing proportion of childless women in all age groups. Contribution: Our results suggest that the decrease in fertility intentions is a likely cause of the recent decrease in fertility rates in Canada. This should inform the debate on family policies in a context where intentions are below replacement level.