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Usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks for Predicting Financial and Economic Crisis

  • Mioara CHIRITA

    ()

    (Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Romania)

  • Daniela SARPE

    ()

    (Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, Romania)

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    The objective of the present study is to explore the issue of the forecasting of economic crisis using the neural network. The subject is of great importance in the economy, more so as that the most countries affected by crisis, declared on the end of 2010, the economic growth but the crisis paralyzed the financial world over the past three years. Neural network techniques have been frequently applied in order to predict problems like economic forecasting. The results show that creating a model using the neural networks might be a powerful tool and could be applied to prevent the economic crises.

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    File URL: http://www.rce.feaa.ugal.ro/images/stories/RCE2011/economics/MChirita_DSarpe.pdf
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    Article provided by "Dunarea de Jos" University of Galati, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its journal Risk in the Contemporary Economy, Proceedings Conference.

    Volume (Year): (2011)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages: 44-48

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    Handle: RePEc:ddj:fserec:y:2011:p:44-48
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    1. Graciela Laura Kaminsky, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Working Papers 97/79, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Fioramanti, Marco, 2008. "Predicting sovereign debt crises using artificial neural networks: A comparative approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 149-164, June.
    3. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    4. Axel Schimmelpfennig & Nouriel Roubini & Paolo Manasse, 2003. "Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises," IMF Working Papers 03/221, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Allen, Franklin & Gale, Douglas, 1999. "Bubbles, Crises, and Policy," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 9-18, Autumn.
    6. Abdul Abiad, 2003. "Early Warning Systems; A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach," IMF Working Papers 03/32, International Monetary Fund.
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