Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities and Exogenous Shocks in Romania in the European Context

In the context of successive crises—from the 2008 financial collapse to the COVID-19 pandemic, followed by post-2022 inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions—Romania’s macroeconomic stability has been increasingly tested. This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of macroeconomic vulnerability and proposes a structured investigation into Romania’s exposure to exogenous shocks compared with other EU Member States. The research includes a literature review on economic resilience and policy responses, with a focus on key vulnerability indicators: budget deficits, inflation, external debt, current account imbalances, and productivity gaps. Drawing on economic theory and existing empirical studies, the paper outlines a methodological design for a future econometric model (structural VAR or early warning system) that will assess the impact of shocks on Romania’s economy over the period 2007–2023. The study utilizes comparative macroeconomic data from Eurostat, the IMF, and the National Bank of Romania. Preliminary findings suggest that Romania’s fiscal and monetary responses have been constrained by structural limitations and limited institutional capacity. The expected results will inform policy recommendations regarding national buffers, shock absorption mechanisms, and better alignment with European resilience instruments. The contribution of this paper lies in bridging theoretical insights and practical indicators in the assessment of macroeconomic vulnerabilities in a small, open economy integrated into the EU.