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The World Economy

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  • Morgan, Julian
  • Pain, Nigel

Abstract

Economic growth slowed in most of the major industrialised countries over the course of last year. The slowdown has been particularly apparent in continental Europe, with GDP falling in the fourth quarter in Germany, France and Italy. Early indications suggest that activity has been subdued in the first quarter of this year, with industrial production declining in Germany, Spain and Sweden, the provisional UK figures recording the lowest per quarter growth since 1992, and a continued deterioration apparent in indicators of the general business climate in Europe. We have made a significant downward adjustment to our previous forecasts for Europe, with EU-wide GDP now projected to rise by only 1½ per cent this year, after growth of 2½ per cent in 1995. We expect growth to pick-up over the course of the year as the contractionary effects of ongoing inventory adjustment come to an end and as the effects from a more relaxed monetary stance begin to outweigh those from ongoing fiscal consolidation. Recent currency movements should help to stimulate external demand in Germany and France, with the D-mark having depreciated against the US dollar by around 7 per cent over the past four months. Private sector expenditure is also likely to benefit from the recent sustained appreciation of equity prices in most national stockmarkets, with prices at the end of April having risen by over 11 per cent in Germany, France, Italy and Spain since the beginning of the year.

Suggested Citation

  • Morgan, Julian & Pain, Nigel, 1996. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 156, pages 28-54, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:156:y:1996:i::p:28-54_3
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    Cited by:

    1. J nos Kollo, 2013. "Patterns of Integration: Low Educated People and their Jobs in Norway, Italy and Hungary," Budapest Working Papers on the Labour Market 1315, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    2. FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Overall Macroeconomic Assessment," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 6, pages 143-169, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    3. Diallo Mamadou Saliou Kokouma & Kaning Xu, 2013. "Attracting Chinese Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to Africa: Determinants and Policies - The Case of Guinea," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 4(4), pages 52-71, October.
    4. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number PRS28, September.
    5. Studer, Roman, 2008. "India and the Great Divergence: Assessing the Efficiency of Grain Markets in Eighteenth- and Nineteenth-Century India," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 393-437, June.
    6. Köllő, János, 2013. "Patterns of Integration: Low Educated People and their Jobs in Norway, Italy and Hungary," IZA Discussion Papers 7632, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kavanagh, Ella & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Macroeconomic Response to Shocks," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 5, pages 105-142, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    8. José M. Albert & Marta R. Casanova & Jorge Mateu & Vicente Orts, 2013. "Distance-Based Methods: An improvement of Ripley’s K function vs. the K density function," Working Papers 2013/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    9. Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Tourism Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 11, pages 321-338, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    10. Morgenroth, Edgar & FitzGerald, John & FitzGerald, John, 2006. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Morgenroth, Edgar (ed.),Ex-Ante Evaluation of the Investment Priorities for the National Development Plan 2007-2013, chapter 24, pages 317-333, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
      • Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Summary and Conclusions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 12, pages 339-352, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. Sourafel Girma & Anja Shortland, 2005. "The Political Economy of Financial Liberalisation," Discussion Papers in Economics 05/12, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester, revised Oct 2005.
    12. Baker, Terence J. & Duffy, David & Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Manufacturing Sector," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 7, pages 174-221, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    13. Ortiz Valverde, Gabriela & Latorre, María C., 2020. "A short- and long-term general equilibrium analysis of the impact of Brexit," Conference papers 333192, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Baker, Terence J. & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Introduction," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, chapter 1, pages 1-9, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    15. Bulent Esiyok, 2015. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Increase Imports To Turkey? An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal Articles, Center For Economic Analyses, pages 23-35, June.
    16. Shigeru Otsubo*Masahiko Tsutsumi, 1996. "Is the"Japan Problem"real? How problems in Japan's financial sector could affect developing regions," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1682, The World Bank.
    17. Palmer, Edward, 2001. "The New Swedish Pension System," Discussion Paper 36, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    18. Honohan, Patrick & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "Adapting to Regime Change," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 10-36, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    19. Geomina Turlea & Cezar Mereuta, 2002. "Markets and networks in Romania - life after disorganisation," UCL SSEES Economics and Business working paper series 15, UCL School of Slavonic and East European Studies (SSEES).
    20. Duggan, Delma & FitzGerald, John & Johnston, Justin & Kelly, Jane & FitzGerald, John & Honohan, Patrick, 1996. "The Macroeconomy in Stable Conditions," Book Chapters, in: Baker, Terence J. (ed.),Economic Implications for Ireland of EMU, pages 50-86, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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