IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cpn/umkdem/v14y2014p5-28.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does historical VIX term structure contain valuable information for predicting VIX futures?

Author

Listed:
  • Juliusz Jablecki
  • Robert Slepaczuk

    () (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Ryszard Kokoszczynski
  • Pawel Sakowski

    () (University of Warsaw, Faculty of Economic Sciences)

  • Piotr Wojcik

Abstract

We suggest that the term structure of VIX futures shows a clear pattern of dependence on the current level of VIX index. At the low levels of VIX (below 20), the term structure is highly upward sloping, while at the high VIX levels (over 30) it is strongly downward sloping. We use these features to predict future VIX futures prices more precisely. We begin by introduc-ing some quantitative measures of volatility term structure (VTS) and volatility risk premium (VRP). We use them further to estimate the distance between the actual value and the fair (model) value of the VTS. We find that this distance has significant predictive power for volatility futures and index futures and we use this feature to design simple strategies to invest in VIX futures.

Suggested Citation

  • Juliusz Jablecki & Robert Slepaczuk & Ryszard Kokoszczynski & Pawel Sakowski & Piotr Wojcik, 2014. "Does historical VIX term structure contain valuable information for predicting VIX futures?," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 14, pages 5-28.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:14:y:2014:p:5-28
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://apcz.pl/czasopisma/index.php/DEM/article/view/DEM.2014.001/5249
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jeff Fleming & Barbara Ostdiek & Robert E. Whaley, 1995. "Predicting stock market volatility: A new measure," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 265-302, May.
    2. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Konstantinidi, Eirini & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Are VIX futures prices predictable? An empirical investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 543-560.
    4. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia, 2003. "Delta-Hedged Gains and the Negative Market Volatility Risk Premium," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 527-566.
    5. Marie Briere & Alexandre Burgues & Ombretta Signori, 2008. "Volatility Exposure for Strategic Asset Allocation," Working Papers CEB 08-034.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. Nicolas P. B. Bollen & Robert E. Whaley, 2004. "Does Net Buying Pressure Affect the Shape of Implied Volatility Functions?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 711-753, April.
    7. Egloff, Daniel & Leippold, Markus & Wu, Liuren, 2010. "The Term Structure of Variance Swap Rates and Optimal Variance Swap Investments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(05), pages 1279-1310, October.
    8. Emanuel Derman & Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2005. "The illusions of dynamic replication," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(4), pages 323-326.
    9. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    10. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7739 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Galai, Dan, 1979. "A Proposal for Indexes for Traded Call Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(5), pages 1157-1172, December.
    12. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2009. "Variance Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1311-1341, March.
    13. Peter Carr & Roger Lee, 2009. "Volatility Derivatives," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-339, November.
    14. Nieto, Belén & Novales, Alfonso & Rubio, Gonzalo, 2014. "Variance swaps, non-normality and macroeconomic and financial risks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 257-270.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    volatility term structure; volatility risk premium; VIX; VIX futures; volatility futures; realized volatility; implied volatility; investment strategies; returns forecasting; efficient risk and return measures;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpn:umkdem:v:14:y:2014:p:5-28. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Miroslawa Buczynska). General contact details of provider: http://www.wydawnictwoumk.pl .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.