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Die Konjunkturprognosen der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose und des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums im Vergleich

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  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Das Bundeswirtschaftsministerium weicht bei seinen Konjunkturprognosen von den Prognosen, die die Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose erstellt, ab, ohne dabei systematisch darüber oder darunter zu liegen. Diese Abweichungen führen allerdings zu keiner Verbesserung der Prognosequalität. Bei längeren Prognosehorizonten scheinen sich die aus den Abweichungen resultierenden Veränderungen der Prognosefehler auszugleichen. Allerdings sind die Prognosen – sowohl der Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose als auch des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums – bei längeren Prognosehorizonten zu optimistisch: Beide Institutionen veröffentlichten in der Vergangenheit BIP-Prognosen, die höher als die jeweilige Realisation des BIP ausfielen. Die Ursache für die systematische Überschätzung der längerfristigen BIP-Entwicklung scheint in der Fehleinschätzung zu liegen, den langjährigen Rückgang der Trendwachstumsrate des deutschen BIP in Echtzeit als konjunkturelle und damit vorübergehende Schwäche zu interpretieren.

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  • Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Die Konjunkturprognosen der Gemeinschaftsdiagnose und des Bundeswirtschaftsministeriums im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(03), pages 40-45, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:03:p:40-45
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