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Wachstum und Konjunktur in OECD-Ländern: Eine langfristige Perspektive


  • Harm Bandholz
  • Gebhard Flaig
  • Johannes Mayr


Gemessen an der Wachstumsrate des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts weist Deutschland im internationalen Vergleich in den letzten Jahren eine besonders schlechte Wirtschaftsleistung auf. Ob dies eher eine ungünstige konjunkturelle Entwicklung widerspiegelt oder ob sich dahinter eine langfristige Wachstumsschwäche verbirgt, wird hier mit Hilfe eines Strukturellen Zeitreihenmodells ermittelt. Das Modell stellt für verschiedene OECD-Länder von 1950 bis 2004 die Beiträge von Konjunktur und langfristigem Trend zu den Wachstumsraten des BIP dar. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Trendwachstumsrate seit den fünfziger Jahren in allen analysierten Ländern zurückging. Besonders stark war aber der Rückgang in Deutschland. Das heißt, dass die enttäuschende wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in Deutschland vor allem auf die niedrige langfristige Trendwachstumsrate zurückzuführen ist und deutet auf bereits seit langem bestehende Strukturprobleme in Deutschland hin.

Suggested Citation

  • Harm Bandholz & Gebhard Flaig & Johannes Mayr, 2005. "Wachstum und Konjunktur in OECD-Ländern: Eine langfristige Perspektive," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(04), pages 28-36, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:04:p:28-36

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
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    6. Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Trend and Cycles in U.S. Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 607, CESifo Group Munich.
    7. Gebhard Flaig, 2001. "Gibt es einen »New-Economy-Effekt« auf das amerikanische Produktionspotential?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(05), pages 16-21, October.
    8. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995. "Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
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    Cited by:

    1. Radulescu, Doina & Stimmelmayr, Michael, 2010. "The impact of the 2008 German corporate tax reform: A dynamic CGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 454-467, January.
    2. Andrzej TABEAU & Geert WOLTJER, "undated". "The Impact of Different Agricultural Labor Market Specifications on Agricultural Employment and Income Development under Different Agricultural Policies," EcoMod2009 21500086, EcoMod.
    3. Doina Radulescu & Michael Stimmelmayr, 2010. "The welfare loss from differential taxation of sectors in Germany," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 17(2), pages 193-215, April.
    4. Michael STIMMELMAYR, "undated". "What Drives Wage Inequality?," EcoMod2008 23800137, EcoMod.

    More about this item


    Wirtschaftswachstum; Konjunktur; Prognose; Wirtschaftspolitik; Deutschland; OECD-Staaten;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General


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