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Euro Area Slowdown - a Country-Sector Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Byrne, David

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Parle, Conor

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

Abstract

During the second half of 2018 and first half of 2019, euro area growth has been slower than in previous years. Surveys of growth imply that the manufacturing sector has led this slowdown, with German manufacturing being particularly affected. This Article uses granular measures of output and the labour market to examine whether the slowdown is concentrated in a small number of sectors or regions, or is more broadly evident. Examining data at the level of pairs of euro area countries and economic sectors, we find evidence for a small, broad-based, weakening of growth rates across countries and sectors. However, the dominant contribution to lower output growth comes from manufacturing in a small number of European countries, most notably Germany. Growth in other sectors and countries, and in the labour market, remains relatively robust but faces a risk of weakness subsequently spilling over from the manufacturing sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Byrne, David & Parle, Conor, 2019. "Euro Area Slowdown - a Country-Sector Analysis," Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, pages 149-163, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbi:qtbart:y:2019:m:07:p:149-163
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    File URL: https://centralbank.ie/docs/default-source/publications/quarterly-bulletins/quarterly-bulletin-signed-articles/euro-area-slowdown-a-country-sector-analysis-(byrne-and-parle).pdf?sfvrsn=5
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Malin Andersson & Arne Gieseck & Beatrice Pierluigi & Nick Vidalis, 2008. "Wage growth dispersion across the euro area countries - some stylised facts," Occasional Paper Series 90, European Central Bank.
    2. repec:ecb:ecbbox:2018:0005:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Benalal, Nicholai & Diaz del Hoyo, Juan Luis & Pierluigi, Beatrice & Vidalis, Nick, 2006. "Output growth differentials across the euro area countries: some stylised facts," Occasional Paper Series 45, European Central Bank.
    4. Pierluigi, Beatrice & Vidalis, Nick & Andersson, Malin & Gieseck, Arne, 2008. "Wage growth dispersion across the euro area countries: some stylised facts," Occasional Paper Series 90, European Central Bank.
    5. Bobeica, Elena & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Vansteenkiste, Isabel, 2019. "The link between labor cost and price inflation in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2235, European Central Bank.
    6. repec:ecb:ecbbox:2019:0004:3 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Nicholai Benalal & Juan Luis Diaz del Hoyo & Beatrice Pierluigi & Nikiforos Vidalis, 2006. "Output growth differentials across the euro area countries - some stylised facts," Occasional Paper Series 45, European Central Bank.
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