IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/statpp/v16y2025i1p87-103n1001.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis of Determinants Influencing Military Expenditure: New Methodological Insights and Implications for Defence Budget Allocation

Author

Listed:
  • Bachtiar Muchamad

    (Bogor Agriculture Institute, Bogor, Indonesia)

  • Ahmad Irdam

    (Indonesia Defense University, Bogor, Indonesia)

  • Sahabuddin Zainal Abidin

    (Indonesia Defense University, Bogor, Indonesia)

  • Trismadi Trismadi

    (Indonesia Defense University, Bogor, Indonesia)

Abstract

The aim of this article is to conduct a meta-analysis of existing research on the determinants of military expenditure. Using data from an initial screening of 179 studies, 15 studies were selected for meta-analysis, contributing 20,023 observations to analyze key variables influencing defense budget allocations. By employing a random-effects meta-analysis, this study synthesizes findings across diverse geopolitical and economic contexts, addressing inconsistencies in prior research and enhancing the reliability of conclusions. Our findings indicate that war, current military expenditure, and the presence of external threats (enemies) are significant drivers of military spending, while national conditions show a significant negative correlation with military expenditure. Other variables, including GDP, population, democracy, trade, FDI, arms exports, alliances, threats, and political regime type, do not show strong correlations. By combining data from multiple studies, this methodological approach not only generalizes results and improves the precision of effect estimates but also identifies gaps to guide future defense economics research. This research provides policymakers with a broader understanding of the factors shaping defense budgets, offering insights into how traditional budgeting methods might be complemented by a data-driven approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Bachtiar Muchamad & Ahmad Irdam & Sahabuddin Zainal Abidin & Trismadi Trismadi, 2025. "A Comprehensive Meta-Analysis of Determinants Influencing Military Expenditure: New Methodological Insights and Implications for Defence Budget Allocation," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 87-103.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:statpp:v:16:y:2025:i:1:p:87-103:n:1001
    DOI: 10.1515/spp-2024-0024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/spp-2024-0024
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/spp-2024-0024?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oliver Pamp & Paul W. Thurner, 2017. "Trading Arms and the Demand for Military Expenditures: Empirical Explorations Using New SIPRI-Data," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 457-472, July.
    2. M Ensar Yesilyurt & J Paul Elhorst, 2017. "Impacts of neighboring countries on military expenditures," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 54(6), pages 777-790, November.
    3. Vincenzo Bove & Jennifer Brauner, 2016. "The demand for military expenditure in authoritarian regimes," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 609-625, September.
    4. �nal T�ng�r & Adem Y. Elveren, 2015. "Military Expenditures, Income Inequality, Welfare and Political Regimes: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 49-74, February.
    5. Jeffrey C. Valentine & Therese D. Pigott & Hannah R. Rothstein, 2010. "How Many Studies Do You Need?," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 35(2), pages 215-247, April.
    6. Stefan Markowski & Satish Chand & Robert Wylie, 2017. "Economic Growth and Demand for Military Expenditure in the Indo-Pacific Asia Region," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 473-490, July.
    7. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2019. "Military expenditure and economic growth: evidence from a heterogeneous panel of African countries," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 3586-3606, January.
    8. Smith, Ron, 1995. "The demand for military expenditure," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 69-87, Elsevier.
    9. Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul, 2012. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 636-650.
    10. Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.), 1995. "Handbook of Defense Economics," Handbook of Defense Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    11. Do, Trung K., 2021. "Resource curse or rentier peace? The impact of natural resource rents on military expenditure," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    12. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou & Panayiotis Tzeremes & Nickolaos Tzeremes, 2018. "The demand for defense spending in Russia: Economic and strategic determinants," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 4(3), pages 215-228, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christos Kollias & Suzanna Maria Paleologou & Panayiotis Tzeremes & Nickolaos Tzeremes, 2018. "The demand for military spending in Latin American countries," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, December.
    2. Oliver Pamp & Florian Dendorfer & Paul W. Thurner, 2018. "Arm your friends and save on defense? The impact of arms exports on military expenditures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 165-187, October.
    3. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Political budget cycles in military expenditures: A meta-analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1083-1102.
    4. Seemab Gillani & Muhammad Nouman Shafiq & Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Military Expenditures and Health Outcomes: A Global Perspective," iRASD Journal of Energy and Environment, International Research Association for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, June.
    5. Klomp, Jeroen, 2023. "Defending election victory by attacking company revenues: The impact of elections on the international defense industry," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    6. Seemab Gillani & Muhammad Nouman Shafiq & Tusawar Iftikhar Ahmad, 2019. "Military Expenditures and Health Outcomes: A Global Perspective," iRASD Journal of Economics, International Research Alliance for Sustainable Development (iRASD), vol. 1(1), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Johannes Blum, 2021. "Democracy’s third wave and national defense spending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 189(1), pages 183-212, October.
    8. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Rafael Alvarado & Fayyaz Ahmad, 2023. "The nexus of military, final consumption expenditures, total reserves, and economic development of Pakistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1753-1776, June.
    9. Stefan Markowski & Satish Chand & Robert Wylie, 2017. "Conducting Comparative Research into Defence Capability Formation," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 4(6), pages 91-106, November.
    10. Khalid Zaman, 2019. "Does higher military spending affect business regulatory and growth specific measures? Evidence from the group of seven (G-7) countries," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 36(1), pages 323-348, April.
    11. J. Paul Dunne & Ron P. Smith, 2020. "Military Expenditure, Investment and Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 601-614, August.
    12. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah & Christian Nsiah, 2020. "Convergence in military expenditure and economic growth in Africa and its regional economic communities: evidence from a club clustering algorithm," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1832344-183, January.
    13. Rosella Cappella Zielinski & Benjamin O Fordham & Kaija E Schilde, 2017. "What goes up, must come down? The asymmetric effects of economic growth and international threat on military spending," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 54(6), pages 791-805, November.
    14. Albalate, Daniel & Bel, Germà & Mazaira-Font, Ferran A. & Ros-Oton, Xavier, 2024. "Paying for protection: bilateral trade with an alliance leader and defense spending of minor partners," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 234-247.
    15. Qari, Salmai & Börger, Tobias & Lohse, Tim & Meyerhoff, Jürgen, 2024. "The value of national defense: Assessing public preferences for defense policy options," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    16. Ünal Töngür & Adem Yavuz Elveren, 2017. "The nexus of economic growth, military expenditures, and income inequality," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1821-1842, July.
    17. Justin George & Todd Sandler, 2021. "EU Demand for Defense, 1990–2019: A Strategic Spatial Approach," Games, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-18, February.
    18. Vincenzo Bove & Roberto Nisticò, 2014. "Coups d’état and defense spending: a counterfactual analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 321-344, December.
    19. Blum, Johannes, 2019. "Arms production, national defense spending and arms trade: Examining supply and demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    20. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Nexus between telecommunication infrastructures, defence and economic growth: a global evidence," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 139-177, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:statpp:v:16:y:2025:i:1:p:87-103:n:1001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.