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Rivalry Type and Cyber Operations: “Hot” Rivalries, “Cold” Rivalries, and Cyber Incidents, 1990–2009

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  • Mauslein Jacob A.

    (Department of Intelligence, Mercyhurst University, Eire, PA 16546, USA)

  • Pickering Jeffrey

    (Department of Political Science, Kansas State University, Manhattan, KS 66506, USA)

Abstract

Cyber operations targeting government computers and network infrastructure are becoming increasingly common and have the potential to be extremely damaging. Interstate rivalry has been shown to shape a wide range of global patterns. This paper examines the intersection between these two important phenomena. It builds upon previous scholarship by developing a broader and more nuanced theory of the rivalry-cyber operation relationship and testing it empirically with newly developed data on cyber operations from 1990 to 2009. Our results go beyond existing studies to demonstrate that certain types of “cold” rivalries experience elevated numbers of cyber operations, while other “hot” rivalries experience fewer incidents. This finding sheds new light on our general understanding of the volume and location of cyber operations in the international system. It also underscores important distinctions among rivalries that help to explain significant cyber activities and may help to improve our grasp of other emerging threats.

Suggested Citation

  • Mauslein Jacob A. & Pickering Jeffrey, 2021. "Rivalry Type and Cyber Operations: “Hot” Rivalries, “Cold” Rivalries, and Cyber Incidents, 1990–2009," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 27(2), pages 169-195, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:27:y:2021:i:2:p:169-195:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2020-0046
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brandon Valeriano & Ryan C. Maness, 2018. "How We Stopped Worrying about Cyber Doom and Started Collecting Data," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 6(2), pages 49-60.
    2. Huth, Paul & Russett, Bruce, 1993. "General Deterrence between Enduring Rivals: Testing Three Competing Models," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 87(1), pages 61-73, March.
    3. King, Gary & Lowe, Will, 2003. "An Automated Information Extraction Tool for International Conflict Data with Performance as Good as Human Coders: A Rare Events Evaluation Design," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(3), pages 617-642, July.
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