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Valuations of Soccer Players from Statistical Performance Data


  • Tunaru Radu S

    (City University, Cass Business School)

  • Viney Howard P

    (Open University Distance Learning)


Based upon contingent claims methodology and standard techniques in statistical modeling and stochastic calculus, we develop a framework for determining the financial value of professional soccer players to their existing and potential new clubs. The model recognizes that a player's value is a product of a variety of factors, some of them more obvious (i.e. on-field performance, injuries, disciplinary record), and some of them less obvious (i.e. image rights or personal background). We provide numerical examples based upon historical statistical performance indicators that suggest the value of a soccer player is not the same for all potential clubs present in a market. In other words this is a special case where the law of one price for one asset does not function. Our modeling employs the vast database of soccer players' performance maintained by OPTA Sportsdata; the same database has been used by major clubs in the English Premiership such as Arsenal and Chelsea. From a statistical point of view, our model can be applied to identify the relative value of players with similar characteristics but different market valuations, to explore patterns of performance for individual star players and teams over a run of games, and to explore correlations or interactions between pairs of players or small groups of players on the team. Moreover, it offers a tool to value players from a financial point of view using their past performance; hence this model can be also used to inform contractual negotiations.

Suggested Citation

  • Tunaru Radu S & Viney Howard P, 2010. "Valuations of Soccer Players from Statistical Performance Data," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-23, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:6:y:2010:i:2:n:10

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Paul D. Childs & Steven H. Ott & Timothy J. Riddiough, 2004. "Effects of Noise on Optimal Exercise Decisions: The Case of Risky Debt Secured by Renewable Lease Income," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 28(2_3), pages 109-121, March.
    2. Eli Amir & Gilad Livne, 2005. "Accounting, Valuation and Duration of Football Player Contracts," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3-4), pages 549-586.
    3. John Goddard & Peter J. Sloane, 2005. "Economics of sport," Chapters,in: Economics Uncut, chapter 12 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Sloane, Peter J, 1971. "The Economics of Professional Football: The Football Club as a Utility Maximiser," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 18(2), pages 121-146, June.
    5. Peter Dawson & Stephen Dobson & Bill Gerrard, 2000. "Stochastic Frontiers and the Temporal Structure of Managerial Efficiency in English Soccer," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 1(4), pages 341-362, November.
    6. Oberstone Joel, 2009. "Differentiating the Top English Premier League Football Clubs from the Rest of the Pack: Identifying the Keys to Success," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 1-29, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fiona Carmichael & Dennis Thomas, 2014. "Team performance: production and efficiency in football," Chapters,in: Handbook on the Economics of Professional Football, chapter 10, pages 143-165 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Oberstone Joel, 2011. "Uncovering Europe's Best Goalscorers from the 2009-2010 Season," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, May.
    3. Carole Botton & Julien Fouquau, 2012. "Adjugé, Vendu...Assuré," Post-Print hal-00937902, HAL.

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