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A Markov Decision Process-based handicap system for tennis

Author

Listed:
  • Chan Timothy C. Y.

    (University of Toronto, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Toronto, Ontario, Canada)

  • Singal Raghav

    (Columbia University, Department of Industrial Engineering and Operations Research, New York City, NY, USA)

Abstract

Handicap systems are used in many sports to improve competitive balance and equalize the match-win probability between opponents of differing ability. Recognizing the absence of such a system in tennis, we develop a novel optimization-based handicap system for tennis using a Markov Decision Process (MDP) model. In our handicap system, the weaker player is given β “free points” or “credits” at the start of the match, which he can use before the start of any point during the match to win the point outright. The MDP model determines two key features of the handicap system: (1) Fairness: the minimum value of β required to equalize the match-win probability, and (2) Achievability: the optimal policy governing usage of the β credits to achieve the desired match-win probability. We test the sensitivity of the handicap values to the model’s input parameters. Finally, we apply the model to real match data to estimate professional handicaps.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan Timothy C. Y. & Singal Raghav, 2016. "A Markov Decision Process-based handicap system for tennis," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 12(4), pages 179-188, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jqsprt:v:12:y:2016:i:4:p:179-188:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/jqas-2016-0057
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaassen F. J G M & Magnus J. R., 2001. "Are Points in Tennis Independent and Identically Distributed? Evidence From a Dynamic Binary Panel Data Model," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 500-509, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chan Timothy C.Y. & Singal Raghav, 2018. "A Bayesian regression approach to handicapping tennis players based on a rating system," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 14(3), pages 131-141, September.

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