Influence of Urbanization on Carbon Emission Rights: An Analysis Based on an Enhanced Translog Production Function and Refined Urban Boundaries

This study evaluates urbanization’s impact on carbon emission rights value in China using translog production functions and carbon shadow pricing models. Firstly, the MK trend test and decoupling analysis divided the city into four carbon emission pressure types, where an enhanced translog three-factor model is used to analyze the nonlinear relationships among population, area, economic development, and total carbon emissions. The results reveal that population growth and urban expansion significantly increase carbon allowance values, with heterogeneous effects across urban types. Carbon-excessive cities demonstrate the strongest correlation, while plateau cities show minimal impacts, suggesting existing low-carbon adaptations. Notably, 50% of cities have achieved peak emissions during rapid urbanization, fulfilling emission control targets. Excessive-emission cities face urgent decarbonization pressure, requiring prioritized policy interventions, whereas plateau cities’ gradual emission growth offers transferable experience for low-carbon transitions. Finally, taking the cities in Guangdong province as an example, we use the shadow price model to calculate the value of carbon emission right, and combine the marginal influence of social factors to obtain the change of carbon emission right value under the influence of urbanization. The highest was 4759.08 yuan / ton for Shenzhen and the lowest was 253.19 yuan / ton for Heyuan.