IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/blg/journl/v11y2016i1p140-151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Debt Overhang Hypothesis: Evidence From Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • SHAH Muhammad Imran

    (Wuhan University, China)

  • ULLAH Irfan

    (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law, China)

  • RAHMAN Zia Ur

    (Gomal University, D.I.Khan, Pakistan)

  • JAN Nadeem

    (Gomal University, D.I.Khan, Pakistan)

Abstract

This study investigates the debt overhang hypothesis for Pakistan in the period 1960-2007. The study examines empirically the dynamic behaviour of GDP, debt services, the employed labour force and investment using the time series concepts of unit roots, cointegration, error correlation and causality. Our findings suggest that debt-servicing has a negative impact on the productivity of both labour and capital, and that in turn has adversely affected economic growth. By severely constraining the ability of the country to service debt, this lends support to the debt-overhang hypothesis in Pakistan. The long run relation between debt services and economic growth implies that future increases in output will drain away in form of high debt service payments to lender country as external debt acts like a tax on output. More specifically, foreign creditors will benefit more from the rise in productivity than will domestic producers and labour. This suggests that domestic labour and capital are the ultimate losers from this heavy debt burden.

Suggested Citation

  • SHAH Muhammad Imran & ULLAH Irfan & RAHMAN Zia Ur & JAN Nadeem, 2016. "The Debt Overhang Hypothesis: Evidence From Pakistan," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 11(1), pages 140-151, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:11:y:2016:i:1:p:140-151
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eccsf.ulbsibiu.ro/RePEc/blg/journl/11112shah&ullah&rahman&jan.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sadia Tahir, 2006. "Core Inflation Measures for Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 2, pages 319-342.
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    3. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    debt overhang; GDP; ECM; Pakistan;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:11:y:2016:i:1:p:140-151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mihaela Herciu). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/feulbro.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.