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The Segmented Trend Line of Highest Life Expectancies

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  • Jacques Vallin
  • France Meslé

Abstract

The well‐known Oeppen–Vaupel straight line of maximum female life expectancies showed that the highest life expectancy observed in a given year increased linearly from 1840 to 2000. Their analysis fueled major controversy, especially when used to extrapolate future improvements in life expectancy at the same pace. We improve on the empirical analysis by enriching the dataset, expanding the period to 1750–2005, and considering both maximum life expectancy at birth and lowest age‐specific survival rates. It clearly appears that the original Oeppen–Vaupel straight line must be divided into several segments characterized by different slopes and that each segment corresponds to a major advance in the health transition. There is room to push life expectancy higher, but unless some new breakthrough increases the human life span, progress will very likely decelerate as mortality reduction affects individuals at older and older ages. The main key to the future lies not in knowing whether the observed straight line can be extrapolated but in anticipating the next major health improvement that will lead to an additional increase in life expectancy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Vallin & France Meslé, 2009. "The Segmented Trend Line of Highest Life Expectancies," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 35(1), pages 159-187, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:35:y:2009:i:1:p:159-187
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2009.00264.x
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    1. Jacques Vallin & France Meslé, 2004. "Convergences and divergences in mortality," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 2(2), pages 11-44.
    2. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1951_6n2_0204 is not listed on IDEAS
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    3. Mariana Mourgova, 2018. "Gender Differences in Life Expectancy with Chronic Disease at Old Age in Bulgaria," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 1, pages 25-34, March.
    4. Kieron J. Barclay & Mikko Myrskylä, 2016. "Parental age and offspring mortality: negative effects of reproductive aging are outweighed by secular increases in longevity," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-011, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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    7. Liou, Lathan & Joe, William & Kumar, Abhishek & Subramanian, S.V., 2020. "Inequalities in life expectancy: An analysis of 201 countries, 1950–2015," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    8. F. Peters & J. P. Mackenbach & W. J. Nusselder, 2016. "Does the Impact of the Tobacco Epidemic Explain Structural Changes in the Decline of Mortality?," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 687-702, December.
    9. Adrian Raftery & Jennifer Chunn & Patrick Gerland & Hana Ševčíková, 2013. "Bayesian Probabilistic Projections of Life Expectancy for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(3), pages 777-801, June.
    10. Casper Worm Hansen & Holger Strulik, 2017. "Life expectancy and education: evidence from the cardiovascular revolution," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 421-450, December.
    11. Sugeng Setyadi & Saharuddin Didu & Lili Indriyani & Ananda Kurnia Fitri & Anita Wiidiastuti, 2023. "Modeling Life Expectancy in Indonesia Using System GMM Model," Review of Applied Socio-Economic Research, Pro Global Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 83-98, June.
    12. Anthony Medford, 2017. "Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 36(34), pages 989-1014.
    13. Michal Engelman & Vladimir Canudas‐Romo & Emily M. Agree, 2010. "The Implications of Increased Survivorship for Mortality Variation in Aging Populations," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 511-539, September.
    14. Anthony Medford, 2021. "Modeling Best Practice Life Expectancy Using Gumbel Autoregressive Models," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-10, March.
    15. Andrea Nigri & Elisabetta Barbi & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "The relationship between longevity and lifespan variation," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 31(3), pages 481-493, September.
    16. Jia Liu & Jackie Li, 2019. "Beyond the highest life expectancy: construction of proxy upper and lower life expectancy bounds," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 159-181, June.
    17. Mackenbach, Johan P., 2013. "Political conditions and life expectancy in Europe, 1900–2008," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 134-146.
    18. Pascariu, Marius D. & Canudas-Romo, Vladimir & Vaupel, James W., 2018. "The double-gap life expectancy forecasting model," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 339-350.
    19. Filipe Costa Souza, 2020. "Relationships between best-practice and greatest possible life expectancies," European Journal of Ageing, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 331-339, September.
    20. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Marcus Ebeling & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2015. "Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(14), pages 391-424.
    21. Verguet, Stéphane & Jamison, Dean T., 2013. "Performance in rate of decline of adult mortality in the OECD, 1970–2010," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 137-142.
    22. Torri, Tiziana & Vaupel, James W., 2012. "Forecasting life expectancy in an international context," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 519-531.
    23. Andrea Nigri & Elisabetta Barbi & Susanna Levantesi, 2022. "The relay for human longevity: country-specific contributions to the increase of the best-practice life expectancy," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4061-4073, December.

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