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The Implications of Increased Survivorship for Mortality Variation in Aging Populations

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  • Michal Engelman
  • Vladimir Canudas‐Romo
  • Emily M. Agree

Abstract

The remarkable growth in life expectancy during the twentieth century inspired predictions of a future in which all people, not just a fortunate few, will live long lives ending at or near the maximum human life span. We show that increased longevity has been accompanied by less variation in ages at death, but survivors to the oldest ages have grown increasingly heterogeneous in their mortality risks. These trends are consistent across countries, and apply even to populations with record‐low variability in the length of life. We argue that as a result of continuing improvements in survival, delayed mortality selection has shifted health disparities from early to later life, where they manifest in the growing inequalities in late‐life mortality.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Engelman & Vladimir Canudas‐Romo & Emily M. Agree, 2010. "The Implications of Increased Survivorship for Mortality Variation in Aging Populations," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 511-539, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:popdev:v:36:y:2010:i:3:p:511-539
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00344.x
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    Cited by:

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    2. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2014. "Mortality Deceleration and Mortality Selection: Three Unexpected Implications of a Simple Model," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 51-71, February.
    3. Gonzaga, Marcos Roberto & Queiroz, Bernardo L & Lima, Everton, 2017. "Compression of mortality: the evolution in the variability in the age of death in Latin America," OSF Preprints pdnfk, Center for Open Science.
    4. Dalkhat M. Ediev, 2013. "Decompression of Period Old-Age Mortality: When Adjusted for Bias, the Variance in the Ages at Death Shows Compression," Mathematical Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 137-154, July.
    5. Liou, Lathan & Joe, William & Kumar, Abhishek & Subramanian, S.V., 2020. "Inequalities in life expectancy: An analysis of 201 countries, 1950–2015," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 253(C).
    6. Iñaki Permanyer & Jeroen Spijker & Amand Blanes & Elisenda Renteria, 2018. "Longevity and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment in Spain: 1960–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2045-2070, December.
    7. Oscar E Fernandez & Hiram Beltrán-Sánchez, 2022. "Life span inequality as a function of the moments of the deaths distribution: Connections and insights," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, January.
    8. Mason, Carl N. & Miller, Timothy, 2018. "International projections of age specific healthcare consumption: 2015–2060," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 202-217.
    9. Hui Zheng & Y. Claire Yang & Kenneth C. Land, 2016. "Age-Specific Variation in Adult Mortality Rates in Developed Countries," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 35(1), pages 49-71, February.
    10. Tim Riffe & Jose Manuel Aburto, 2020. "Lexis fields," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(24), pages 713-726.
    11. Isaac Sasson, 2016. "Trends in Life Expectancy and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment: United States, 1990–2010," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 53(2), pages 269-293, April.
    12. Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, 2020. "Multidimensional Mortality Selection: Why Individual Dimensions of Frailty Don’t Act Like Frailty," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(2), pages 747-777, April.
    13. Viorela Diaconu & Nadine Ouellette & Robert Bourbeau, 2020. "Modal lifespan and disparity at older ages by leading causes of death: a Canada-U.S. comparison," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 37(4), pages 323-344, December.
    14. Noghanibehambari, Hamid & Engelman, Michal, 2022. "Social insurance programs and later-life mortality: Evidence from new deal relief spending," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    15. Duncan Gillespie & Meredith Trotter & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 2014. "Divergence in Age Patterns of Mortality Change Drives International Divergence in Lifespan Inequality," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(3), pages 1003-1017, June.
    16. Michal Engelman & Hal Caswell & Emily Agree, 2014. "Why do lifespan variability trends for the young and old diverge? A perturbation analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(48), pages 1367-1396.
    17. Alyson A. van Raalte & Pekka Martikainen & Mikko Myrskylä, 2012. "Lifespan variation by occupational class: compression or stagnation over time?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-010, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Glenn Firebaugh & Francesco Acciai & Aggie Noah & Christopher Prather & Claudia Nau, 2014. "Why Lifespans Are More Variable Among Blacks Than Among Whites in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(6), pages 2025-2045, December.
    19. Christina Bohk-Ewald & Marcus Ebeling & Roland Rau, 2017. "Lifespan Disparity as an Additional Indicator for Evaluating Mortality Forecasts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(4), pages 1559-1577, August.
    20. Dustin Brown & Mark Hayward & Jennifer Montez & Robert Hummer & Chi-Tsun Chiu & Mira Hidajat, 2012. "The Significance of Education for Mortality Compression in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 49(3), pages 819-840, August.
    21. Iñaki Permanyer & Nathalie Scholl, 2019. "Global trends in lifespan inequality: 1950-2015," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-19, May.
    22. Nico Keilman, 2019. "Mortality shifts and mortality compression in period and cohort life tables," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 41(40), pages 1147-1196.
    23. Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher & Marcus Ebeling & Vladimir Canudas-Romo, 2015. "Decomposing changes in life expectancy: Compression versus shifting mortality," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(14), pages 391-424.
    24. Ana Isabel Ribeiro & Elias Teixeira Krainski & Marilia Sá Carvalho & Guy Launoy & Carole Pornet & Maria de Fátima Pina, 2018. "Does community deprivation determine longevity after the age of 75? A cross-national analysis," International Journal of Public Health, Springer;Swiss School of Public Health (SSPH+), vol. 63(4), pages 469-479, May.
    25. Janina Nemitz, 2022. "Increasing longevity and life satisfaction: is there a catch to living longer?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 557-589, April.

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