IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/finmgt/v36y2007i3p33-48.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Importance of Cash‐Flow News for Financially Distressed Firms

Author

Listed:
  • Assaf Eisdorfer

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that stock prices are moved primarily by news about discount rates (expected returns). I argue that when a firm experiences financial distress, news about cashflows becomes more dominant in driving its stock returns. Applying Campbell's (1991) variance decomposition framework to financially distressed firms supports this argument. Furthermore, I find that more bankruptcies occur after negative shocks to expected cashflows than after positive shocks to discount rates; and that stock prices of distressed firms are less sensitive than those of sound firms to changes in equity risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Assaf Eisdorfer, 2007. "The Importance of Cash‐Flow News for Financially Distressed Firms," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 36(3), pages 33-48, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:36:y:2007:i:3:p:33-48
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1755-053X.2007.tb00079.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2007.tb00079.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1755-053X.2007.tb00079.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2002. "What Drives Firm‐Level Stock Returns?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 233-264, February.
    2. Campbell, John Y & Ammer, John, 1993. "What Moves the Stock and Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition for Long-Term Asset Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 3-37, March.
    3. Owen A. Lamont & Christopher Polk, 2001. "The Diversification Discount: Cash Flows Versus Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1693-1721, October.
    4. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    5. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    6. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & Schwert, G. William, 1977. "Asset returns and inflation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 115-146, November.
    8. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    9. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    10. Larrain, Borja & Yogo, Motohiro, 2008. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 200-226, January.
    11. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1989. "Business conditions and expected returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 23-49, November.
    12. Jacob Boudoukh & Roni Michaely & Matthew Richardson & Michael R. Roberts, 2007. "On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 877-915, April.
    13. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    14. Fama, Eugene F & MacBeth, James D, 1973. "Risk, Return, and Equilibrium: Empirical Tests," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 607-636, May-June.
    15. DeAngelo, Harry & DeAngelo, Linda, 1990. "Dividend Policy and Financial Distress: An Empirical Investigation of Troubled NYSE Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(5), pages 1415-1431, December.
    16. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    2. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    3. Celiker, Umut & Kayacetin, Nuri Volkan & Kumar, Raman & Sonaer, Gokhan, 2016. "Cash flow news, discount rate news, and momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 240-254.
    4. Benjamin A. Jansen, 2021. "Cash flow growth and stock returns," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(2), pages 371-402, June.
    5. Carmelo Giaccotto & Alain Krapl, 2014. "Good News and Bad News about Firm-Level Stock Returns of Internationally Exposed Firms," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 523-550, December.
    6. Kausar, Rabia & Qayyum, Abdul, 2018. "How Cash Flow News and Discount Rate News Impact the Unexpected Stock Returns of Energy Firms of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 91165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Wei, Peihwang & Yang, Xiaolou, 2012. "Do investors value REITs and Non-REITs differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 295-302.
    8. Pervaiz Alam & Xiaoling Pu & Barry Hettler, 2018. "The sensitivity of the credit default swap market to financial analysts’ forecast revisions," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(3), pages 697-725, September.
    9. Bozos, Konstantinos & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Ramgandhi, Ghanamaruthy, 2011. "Dividend signaling under economic adversity: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 364-374.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paulo Maio, 2014. "Another Look at the Stock Return Response to Monetary Policy Actions," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(1), pages 321-371.
    2. Maio, Paulo & Philip, Dennis, 2015. "Macro variables and the components of stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 287-308.
    3. Carmelo Giaccotto & Alain Krapl, 2014. "Good News and Bad News about Firm-Level Stock Returns of Internationally Exposed Firms," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 523-550, December.
    4. , & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 16357, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Khan, Mozaffar, 2008. "Are accruals mispriced Evidence from tests of an Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 55-77, March.
    6. Qi Liu & Libin Tao & Weixing Wu & Jianfeng Yu, 2017. "Short- and Long-Run Business Conditions and Expected Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4137-4157, December.
    7. Chen, Jiun-Lin (Alex) & Hwang, Hyoseok (David), 2019. "Business cycle, expected return and momentum payoffs," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 83-89.
    8. Gonçalves, Andrei S., 2021. "The short duration premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 919-945.
    9. Maio, Paulo & Xu, Danielle, 2020. "Cash-flow or return predictability at long horizons? The case of earnings yield," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 172-192.
    10. Zhang, Yuzhao, 2014. "Contrarian flows, consumption and expected stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 101-111.
    11. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    12. Turan Bali & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "The Intertemporal Relation between Expected Return and Risk on Currency," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0909, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2009.
    13. Hardouvelis, Gikas A. & Kim, Dongcheol & Wizman, Thierry A., 1996. "Asset pricing models with and without consumption data: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 267-301, September.
    14. Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
    15. Maio, Paulo, 2013. "Return decomposition and the Intertemporal CAPM," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4958-4972.
    16. Bali, Turan G., 2008. "The intertemporal relation between expected returns and risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 101-131, January.
    17. Efdal Ulas Misirli, 2018. "Productivity Risk and Industry Momentum," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 47(3), pages 739-774, September.
    18. Ghysels, Eric & Plazzi, Alberto & Valkanov, Rossen & Torous, Walter, 2013. "Forecasting Real Estate Prices," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 509-580, Elsevier.
    19. Verma, Rahul & Soydemir, Gökçe, 2009. "The impact of individual and institutional investor sentiment on the market price of risk," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 1129-1145, August.
    20. Yi-Mien Lin & Yun-Sheng Hsu & Shieh-Liang Chen, 2009. "Cash-flow news, market liquidity and liquidity risk," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(9), pages 1137-1156.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:finmgt:v:36:y:2007:i:3:p:33-48. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fmaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.