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A Short‐Run Econometric Model of the Japanese Wool Textile Industry

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  • D. J. CARLAND
  • A. R. PAGAN

Abstract

Few models of the Japanese wool textile industry have been constructed, despite the importance of the Japanese as the largest purchasers of Australian wool on a single‐country basis. This paper constructs a twenty‐five equation, monthly model explaining the flow of material through the various processing stages of the industry from greasy wool imports to fabric production. The model was estimated over the period 1968 to 1976 and its performance in dynamic simulations over the same period was good until 1975 when a cartel was implemented. Forecasts outside the sample period for 1977 were satisfactory. The model demònstrates the role of stocks within the industry and concludes that there exists a lengthy lag in the response of wool purchases to changes in Japan's economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • D. J. Carland & A. R. Pagan, 1979. "A Short‐Run Econometric Model of the Japanese Wool Textile Industry," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 55(4), pages 317-327, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:55:y:1979:i:4:p:317-327
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.1979.tb02236.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Minford, Patrick, 1975. "Textile Fibre Substitution And Relative Prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 19(3), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Byron, R.P., 1965. "Price Competition In The Japanese Wool Textile Industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Pagan, Adrian, 1974. "A Generalised Approach to the Treatment of Autocorrelation," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(23), pages 267-280, December.
    4. Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1978. "Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 88(351), pages 549-563, September.
    5. Phillips, John, 1967. "Cycles in Japanese Wool Textile Activity and Australian Wool Prices," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 35(02), pages 1-56, June.
    6. R.P. Byron, 1965. "Price Competition In The Japanese Wool Textile Industry," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 9(2), pages 141-151, December.
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