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Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications

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  • Ming Zhang
  • Xiaofen Tan

Abstract

This paper argues that the twin surpluses in China's balance of payments will disappear in the future as a result of external and internal structural changes. China's current account surplus will diminish as a result of the decline in the goods trade surplus, the expanding service trade deficit and negative investment income. China's capital account might shift from surplus to deficit as a result of shrinking net direct investment inflows and more volatile short-term capital flows. When the twin surpluses no longer exist, the normalization of the US treasury bond yields will be sped up, terminating the one-way appreciation of the RMB exchange rate; the People's Bank of China's pressure to sterilize inflows will be alleviated, and new problems for the People's Bank of China's monetary operation will emerge; new financial vulnerabilities for the Chinese economy will arise. Finally, the present paper provides some policy suggestions for the Chinese Government to deal with the declining twin surpluses.

Suggested Citation

  • Ming Zhang & Xiaofen Tan, 2015. "Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(1), pages 101-120, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:chinae:v:23:y:2015:i:1:p:101-120
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/cwe.12101
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Macheda, 2020. "Il ruolo delle imprese a conduzione statale nella lotta della Cina contro il COVID-19 (The role of State-Owned Enterprises in China's fight against the coronavirus disease)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(290), pages 111-139.
    2. Jianwei Xu & Panpan Yang & Guangrong Ma, 2021. "Why Has China's Current Account Balance Converged after the Global Financial Crisis?," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 29(1), pages 109-129, January.

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