IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/annpce/v77y2006i1p83-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Investigating the solvency of brazilian credit unions using a proportional hazard model

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo J. Braga
  • Valéria G. Fully Bressan
  • Enrico A. Colosimo
  • Aureliano A. Bressan

Abstract

**: Due to high interest rates and bank spreads, the number of credit unions in Brazil has increased over recent years. As financial institutions, these cooperatives need tools to signal impending financial problems. This paper focuses on one tool that can be used to evaluate credit union solvency: the Cox Proportional Hazards Model. A sample of 80 credit unions from the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais was selected to supply data. The analysis period is between December 2001 and June 2003. The results indicate that the relevant indicators for insolvency prediction are, in descending order of predictive ability, General Liquidity, Salary and Benefit Expenses, and the Loan/Equity Ratio. In general, results produced using the delineated theoretical model were in consonance with international literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo J. Braga & Valéria G. Fully Bressan & Enrico A. Colosimo & Aureliano A. Bressan, 2006. "Investigating the solvency of brazilian credit unions using a proportional hazard model," Annals of Public and Cooperative Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(1), pages 83-106, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:annpce:v:77:y:2006:i:1:p:83-106
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1370-4788.2006.00298.x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1370-4788.2006.00298.x
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/j.1370-4788.2006.00298.x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1991. "The Theory of Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 297-355, March.
    2. Edward I Altman & Tara K N Baidya & Luis Manoel Ribeiro Dias, 1979. "Assessing Potential Financial Problems for Firms in Brazil," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 10(2), pages 9-24, June.
    3. Gary Whalen, 1991. "A proportional hazards model of bank failure: an examination of its usefulness as an early warning tool," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 27(Q I), pages 21-31.
    4. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    5. McKillop, D. G. & Glass, J. C. & Ferguson, C., 2002. "Investigating the cost performance of UK credit unions using radial and non-radial efficiency measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1563-1591, August.
    6. Bressan, Valéria Gama Fully & Braga, Marcelo José & Bressan, Aureliano Angel, 2004. "Análise do risco de insolvência pelo modelo de Cox: uma aplicação prática," RAE - Revista de Administração de Empresas, FGV-EAESP Escola de Administração de Empresas de São Paulo (Brazil), vol. 44(0), January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lin, Ching-Chung & Yang, Shou-Lin, 2016. "Bank fundamentals, economic conditions, and bank failures in East Asian countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 960-966.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sondes Draief Chouaya, 2008. "Gestion des résultats, atteinte des seuils et coût d'endettement," Post-Print halshs-00522515, HAL.
    2. Marco Bisogno, 2012. "The Accessibility Of The Italian Bankruptcy Procedures: An Empirical Analysis," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 2(2), pages 1-24, December.
    3. Roman Lanis & Grant Richardson & Brett Govendir & Gregory Pazmandy, 2021. "The effect of board of directors’ expertise and tax avoidance on corporate debt," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(3), pages 4475-4511, September.
    4. Ke Wang & Darrell Duffie, 2004. "Multi-Period Corporate Failure Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 747, Econometric Society.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cerrato, Mario & Zhang, Xuan, 2017. "Analysing the determinants of insolvency risk for general insurance firms in the UK," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 107-122.
    6. Wenlang Zhang & Gaofeng Han & Steven Chan, 2014. "How Strong are the Linkages between Real Estate and Other Sectors in China?," Working Papers 112014, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Caro, Norma Patricia & Díaz, Margarita & Porporato, Marcela, 2013. "Predicción de quiebras empresariales en economías emergentes: uso de un modelo logístico mixto || Bankruptcy Prediction in Emerging Economies: Use of a Mixed Logistic Model," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 16(1), pages 200-215, December.
    8. José Eduardo Gómez González & Ines Paola Orozco Hinojosa, 2010. "Un modelo de alerta temprana para el sistema financiero colombiano," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 28(62), pages 124-147, June.
    9. García Lara, Juan Manuel & García Osma, Beatriz & Penalva, Fernando, 2016. "Accounting conservatism and firm investment efficiency," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 221-238.
    10. Jos� Eduardo Gómez-González, 2012. "Failing and Merging as Competing Alternatives during Times of Financial Distress: Evidence from the Colombian Financial Crisis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(4), pages 655-671, October.
    11. Ayub, Mehar, 1998. "A simulation model of corporate finances: A study of the companies listed on Karachi stock exchange," MPRA Paper 443, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2001.
    12. Goenner, Cullen F. & Lee, Kwan Yong, 2022. "The capital structure of domestic and foreign denominated debt: Firm-level evidence from South Korea," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    13. Thomas B. King & Daniel A. Nuxoll & Timothy J. Yeager, 2006. "Are the causes of bank distress changing? can researchers keep up?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Jan), pages 57-80.
    14. Jeffrey Harrison & Matthew Hart & Derek Oler, 2014. "Leverage and acquisition performance," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 571-603, October.
    15. Sumaira Ashraf & Elisabete G. S. Félix & Zélia Serrasqueiro, 2022. "Does board committee independence affect financial distress likelihood? A comparison of China with the UK," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 723-761, June.
    16. Michael Halling & Evelyn Hayden, 2008. "Bank failure prediction: a two-step survival time approach," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The IFC's contribution to the 56th ISI Session, Lisbon, August 2007, volume 28, pages 48-73, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Tomasz Korol, 2020. "Assessment of Trajectories of Non-bankrupt and Bankrupt Enterprises," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 1113-1135.
    18. Armanious, Amir & Zhao, Ruoyun, 2024. "Stock liquidity effect on leverage: The role of debt security, financial constraint, and risk around the global financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    19. Pavlos Almanidis & Robin C. Sickles, 2016. "Banking Crises, Early Warning Models, and Efficiency," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Juan Aparicio & C. A. Knox Lovell & Jesus T. Pastor (ed.), Advances in Efficiency and Productivity, chapter 0, pages 331-364, Springer.
    20. Cole, Rebel A. & Wu, Qiongbing, 2009. "Is hazard or probit more accurate in predicting financial distress? Evidence from U.S. bank failures," MPRA Paper 24688, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Aug 2010.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:annpce:v:77:y:2006:i:1:p:83-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1370-4788 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.