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Forecasting the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Selected West African Countries Using ARIMA Model Technique

Author

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  • Musa Ganaka Kubi

    (Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Federal Polytechnic, Nasarawa, Nasarawa State, Nigeria)

  • Son-Allah Mallaka Philemon

    (Department of Management & Information Technology, ATBU, Bauchi, Nigeria)

  • Olope Ganiu Ibrahim

    (Department of Mathematical Sciences, ATBU, Bauchi, Nigeria)

Abstract

COVID-19 is a disease caused by the novel coronavirus that was reported in China in 2019. The virus has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. Hence, forecasting the future confirmed cases to support prevention of the disease and aid in the healthcare service preparation is very important especially in developing countries. In order to support governments’ effort in the prevention of COVID-19, we developed an ARIMA model which was used in forecasting future COVID-19 cases in selected West African Countries. The forecasting results from this study indicates an increase cases in the coming days. It is expected that the present prediction models will assist the government and medical personnel in the selected countries to be prepared for the upcoming conditions and have more readiness in healthcare systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Musa Ganaka Kubi & Son-Allah Mallaka Philemon & Olope Ganiu Ibrahim, 2020. "Forecasting the Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in Selected West African Countries Using ARIMA Model Technique," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Applied Science (IJRIAS), vol. 5(8), pages 141-144, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:bjf:journl:v:5:y:2020:i:8:p:141-144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cleo Anastassopoulou & Lucia Russo & Athanasios Tsakris & Constantinos Siettos, 2020. "Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, March.
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