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Assessing the role of quarantine and isolation as control strategies for COVID-19 outbreak: A case study

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  • Memon, Zaibunnisa
  • Qureshi, Sania
  • Memon, Bisharat Rasool

Abstract

Life style of people almost in every country has been changed with arrival of corona virus. Under the drastic influence of the virus, mathematicians, statisticians, epidemiologists, microbiologists, environmentalists, health providers, and government officials started searching for strategies including mathematical modeling, lock-down, face masks, isolation, quarantine, and social distancing. With quarantine and isolation being the most effective tools, we have formulated a new nonlinear deterministic model based upon ordinary differential equations containing six compartments (susceptible S(t), exposed E(t), quarantined Q(t), infected I(t), isolated J(t) and recovered R(t)). The model is found to have positively invariant region whereas equilibrium points of the model are investigated for their local stability with respect to the basic reproductive number R0. The computed value of R0=1.31 proves endemic level of the epidemic. Using nonlinear least-squares method and real prevalence of COVID-19 cases in Pakistan, best parameters are obtained and their sensitivity is analyzed. Various simulations are presented to appreciate quarantined and isolated strategies if applied sensibly.

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  • Memon, Zaibunnisa & Qureshi, Sania & Memon, Bisharat Rasool, 2021. "Assessing the role of quarantine and isolation as control strategies for COVID-19 outbreak: A case study," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:144:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921000084
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110655
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Abboubakar, Hamadjam & Kouchéré Guidzavaï, Albert & Yangla, Joseph & Damakoa, Irépran & Mouangue, Ruben, 2021. "Mathematical modeling and projections of a vector-borne disease with optimal control strategies: A case study of the Chikungunya in Chad," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    9. Lee, Chaeyoung & Kwak, Soobin & Kim, Sangkwon & Hwang, Youngjin & Choi, Yongho & Kim, Junseok, 2021. "Robust optimal parameter estimation for the susceptible-unidentified infected-confirmed model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 153(P1).
    10. Trikha, Pushali & Mahmoud, Emad E. & Jahanzaib, Lone Seth & Matoog, R.T. & Abdel-Aty, Mahmoud, 2021. "Fractional order biological snap oscillator: Analysis and control," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    11. Maila D. H. Rahiem & Steven Eric Krauss & Robin Ersing, 2021. "Perceived Consequences of Extended Social Isolation on Mental Well-Being: Narratives from Indonesian University Students during the COVID-19 Pandemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(19), pages 1-20, October.
    12. Javier Cabezas & Daniela Moctezuma & Alberto Fernández-Isabel & Isaac Martín de Diego, 2021. "Detecting Emotional Evolution on Twitter during the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Text Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(13), pages 1-20, June.
    13. Haiyue Chen & Benedikt Haus & Paolo Mercorelli, 2021. "Extension of SEIR Compartmental Models for Constructive Lyapunov Control of COVID-19 and Analysis in Terms of Practical Stability," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-25, August.

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