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Climate Policy Uncertainty and Crude Oil Market Volatility

Author

Listed:
  • Afees Salisu
  • Philip Omoke
  • Olalekan Fadiya

    (Centre for Econometrics and Applied Research, Ibadan, Nigeria)

Abstract

In this study, we pursue two main innovations. First, we evaluate the predictive value of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) for oil market volatility. Second, we demonstrate how an investor can exploit the information contents of CPU to gain higher returns. We find that increased values of CPU heighten crude oil market risk, while higher forecast gains are achieved in a model that accommodates CPU. We further show that observing CPU offers higher portfolio returns than ignoring it.

Suggested Citation

  • Afees Salisu & Philip Omoke & Olalekan Fadiya, 2023. "Climate Policy Uncertainty and Crude Oil Market Volatility," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-5.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnerl:72
    DOI: 2023/03/14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Y. Campbell & Samuel B. Thompson, 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1509-1531, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & M. Kabir Hassan & Luca Pezzo, 2024. "Managing risk and reaping rewards: Climate‐change futures as a game‐changer for energy futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(8), pages 1338-1356, August.
    2. Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Climate Risks and Prediction of Sectoral REITs Volatility: International Evidence," Working Papers 202434, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Wang, Jun-Zhuo & Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Gunadi, Iman & Hermawan, Danny, 2025. "Climate change and financial risk: Is there a role for central banks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Chiang, Thomas C., 2025. "The effect of climate policy uncertainty and induced risks on US aggregate and sectoral stock returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Siddique, Md. Abubakar & Nobanee, Haitham & Hasan, Md. Bokhtiar & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Hossain, Md. Naiem & Park, Donghyun, 2023. "How do energy markets react to climate policy uncertainty? Fossil vs. renewable and low-carbon energy assets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    6. Afees A. Salisu & Yinka S. Hammed & Ibrahim Ngananga Ouattara, 2023. "Climate Change, Technology Shocks and the US Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-22, October.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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