IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ayb/jrnerl/10.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Infectious Diseases-Energy Futures Nexus - A Quantile-on-Quantile Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ismail Fasanya
  • Oluwatomisin Oyewole

    (Asia Pacific Applied Economics Association)

Abstract

We examine the predictability of the energy futures market with a diseases-based uncertainty index using a non-parametric framework. We observe that: (1) non-linearity is significant when examining the causal relationship between uncertainties due to infectious disease outbreaks and energy future returns; (2) the non-parametric causality test shows that energy futures predictability driven by health-based uncertainty is prevalent around the lower and median quantiles; and (3) predictability is observed to be strongest for the West Texas Intermediate oil futures when the market is in a normal mode. Given the non-linearity in our data, the non-parametric test is more robust than the standard causality test.

Suggested Citation

  • Ismail Fasanya & Oluwatomisin Oyewole, 2021. "Infectious Diseases-Energy Futures Nexus - A Quantile-on-Quantile Approach," Energy RESEARCH LETTERS, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4.
    • Handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnerl:10
    DOI: 2021/06/16
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://erl.scholasticahq.com/api/v1/articles/18267-infectious-diseases-energy-futures-nexus-a-quantile-on-quantile-approach.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/2021/06/16?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bouri, Elie & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Return connectedness across asset classes around the COVID-19 outbreak," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2016. "Does uncertainty move the gold price? New evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 74-80.
    3. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Stephen J. Terry, 2020. "COVID-Induced Economic Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 26983, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fasanya, Ismail & Adekoya, Oluwasegun & Oyewole, Oluwatomisin & Adegboyega, Soliu, 2022. "Investor sentiment and energy futures predictability: Evidence from Feasible Quasi Generalized Least Squares," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    2. Ismail O. Fasanya & Oluwatomisin J. Oyewole & Johnson A. Oliyide, 2021. "Can Uncertainty Due to Pandemic Predict Asia-Pacific Energy Stock Markets?," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(1), pages 1-7.
    3. Daniel Stefan Armeanu & Stefan Cristian Gherghina & Jean Vasile Andrei & Camelia Catalina Joldes, 2023. "Evidence from the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model on the asymmetric influence of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on energy markets," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1433-1470, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adediran, Idris A. & Yinusa, Olalekan D. & Lakhani, Kanwal Hammad, 2021. "Where lies the silver lining when uncertainty hang dark clouds over the global financial markets?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    2. Rangan Gupta & Sayar Karmakar & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Safe Havens, Machine Learning, and the Sources of Geopolitical Risk: A Forecasting Analysis Using Over a Century of Data," Working Papers 202201, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Fasanya, Ismail O. & Oyewole, Oluwatomisin & Dauda, Mariam, 2023. "Uncertainty due to infectious diseases and bitcoin-gold nexus: Evidence from a non-parametric causality-in-quantiles approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    4. Chiang, Thomas C., 2022. "The effects of economic uncertainty, geopolitical risk and pandemic upheaval on gold prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    5. Tanin, Tauhidul Islam & Sarker, Ashutosh & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2021. "Do volatility indices diminish gold's appeal as a safe haven to investors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 214-235.
    6. Yousaf, Imran & Plakandaras, Vasilios & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Hedge and safe-haven properties of FAANA against gold, US Treasury, bitcoin, and US Dollar/CHF during the pandemic period," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Mohd Ziaur Rehman & Shabeer Khan & Ghulam Abbas & Mohammed Alhashim, 2023. "Novel COVID-19 Outbreak and Global Uncertainty in the Top-10 Affected Countries: Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-20, March.
    8. Hong, Yanran & Ma, Feng & Wang, Lu & Liang, Chao, 2022. "How does the COVID-19 outbreak affect the causality between gold and the stock market? New evidence from the extreme Granger causality test," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    9. Chi-Wei Su & Lidong Pang & Muhammad Umar & Oana-Ramona Lobonţ, 2022. "Will Gold Always Shine amid World Uncertainty?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3425-3438, September.
    10. Dong, Zibing & Li, Yanshuang & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 on global stock sectors: Evidence from time-varying connectedness and asymmetric nexus analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Wright, Austin L. & Sonin, Konstantin & Driscoll, Jesse & Wilson, Jarnickae, 2020. "Poverty and economic dislocation reduce compliance with COVID-19 shelter-in-place protocols," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 544-554.
    12. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    13. Lewkowicz, Jacek & Woźniak, Michał & Wrzesiński, Michał, 2022. "COVID-19 and erosion of democracy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    14. Kumar, Anand & Priya, Bhawna & Srivastava, Samir K., 2021. "Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 76-94.
    15. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    16. Bakas, Dimitrios & Triantafyllou, Athanasios, 2020. "Commodity price volatility and the economic uncertainty of pandemics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    17. Selmi, Refk & Bouoiyour, Jamal & Miftah, Amal, 2020. "Oil price jumps and the uncertainty of oil supplies in a geopolitical perspective: The role of OPEC’s spare capacity," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 18-35.
    18. Vladimir Arčabić, 2020. "Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 1, pages 21-58, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    19. Fraser Summerfield & Livio Di Matteo, 2021. "Influenza Pandemics and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Recent Economic History," Working Papers 210002, Canadian Centre for Health Economics.
    20. Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo & Seyi Saint Akadiri & Usenobong Akpan & Bisola Aladenika, 2023. "Asymmetric effect of financial globalization on carbon emissions in G7 countries: Fresh insight from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy & Environment, , vol. 34(5), pages 1285-1304, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    nonparametric; quantile; causality; nonparametric quantile causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ayb:jrnerl:10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/apaeaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.