Does Geopolitical Risk Rise Carbon Emissions? Evidence from a CS-ARDL Model for OECD Countries

Geopolitical risk constitutes an escalating global challenge, exerting profound implications for carbon emissions and the stability of ecological systems. This paper investigates the nexus between geopolitical risk and carbon emissions by employing advanced econometric techniques on a balanced panel of 25 OECD member states, incorporating extensive pre-estimation diagnostics and robustness checks to ensure methodological rigor. The empirical evidence demonstrates that elevated geopolitical risk exerts a statistically significant and positive effect on carbon emissions, thereby intensifying environmental degradation. Moreover, population expansion and higher per capita GDP are identified as key drivers of ecological deterioration, while trade openness and financial development emerge as mitigating factors. These results underscore the critical importance of fostering cross-border dialogue and enhancing institutional platforms established by supranational bodies to reduce geopolitical tensions. Coordinated international strategies that address both political stability and environmental sustainability are thus imperative for mitigating the intertwined challenges of global security and climate change.