IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/wjagec/32375.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Combining Annual Econometric Forecasts With Quarterly Arima Froecasts: A Heuristic Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Myer, Gordon L.
  • Yanagida, John F.

Abstract

Data limitations often limit the time framework in which agricultural commodities are modeled and prices forecasted. Our research provides a technique to alleviate this constraint. By combining an annual econometric model with a quarterly ARIMA model, quarterly forecasts can be made which utilize the theoretical and structural foundations in econometric modeling.

Suggested Citation

  • Myer, Gordon L. & Yanagida, John F., 1984. "Combining Annual Econometric Forecasts With Quarterly Arima Froecasts: A Heuristic Approach," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 9(1), pages 1-7, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32375
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.32375
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/32375/files/09010200.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.32375?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Helmers, Glenn A. & Held, Larry J., 1977. "Comparison Of Livestock Price Forecasting Using Simple Techniques, Forward Pricing And Outlook Information," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 1(1), pages 1-4, June.
    2. Dale Heien, 1977. "Price Determination Processes for Agricultural Sector Models," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 59(1), pages 126-132.
    3. Jon A. Brandt & David A. Bessler, 1981. "Composite Forecasting: An Application with U.S. Hog Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(1), pages 135-140.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yu Zhao & Xi Zhang & Zhongshun Shi & Lei He, 2017. "Grain Price Forecasting Using a Hybrid Stochastic Method," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 34(05), pages 1-24, October.
    2. Ferenc Bakó & Judit Berkes & Cecília Szigeti, 2021. "Households’ Electricity Consumption in Hungarian Urban Areas," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-23, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Yanagida, John F. & Book, Don N., 1984. "Application of the Least Absolute Value Technique as a Data Filter for Detecting Structural Change in the Demand for Meat," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-5, April.
    3. Huang, Wen-Yuan & Hyberg, Bengt & Segarra, Eduardo, 1990. "A Variable Price Support Farm Program: A Transition Tool To A Free Market," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, July.
    4. Marsh, John M., 1991. "Derived Demand Elasticities: Marketing Margin Methods Versus An Inverse Demand Model For Choice Beef," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 16(2), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Griffith, Garry R. & Moore, Walter B., 1991. "Livestock Production Policies And Meat Processing Margins: The Case Of New Zealand, 1967-1988," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 35(1), pages 1-28, April.
    6. Oliveira, Ronald A. & O'Connor, Carl W. & Smith, Gary W., 1979. "Short-Run Forecasting Models Of Beef Prices," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-12, July.
    7. Kaylen, Michael S. & Devino, Gary T. & Procter, Michael H., 1988. "Optimal Use Of Qualitative Models: An Application To Country Grain Elevator Bankruptcies," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 1-7, December.
    8. Ryan, Timothy J., 1980. "A Note On Bias In The Estimated Effects Of Beef Imports On U.S. Meat Prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 24(1), pages 1-5, April.
    9. Li, Anzhi & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2014. "Composite Qualitative Forecasting of Futures Prices: Using One Commodity to Help Forecast Another," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169790, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Unknown, 1990. "Structural Change in Livestock: Causes, Implications, Alternatives," Research Institute on Livestock Pricing 232728, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    11. Buhr, Brian L., 1993. "A Quarterly Econometric Simulation Model Of The U.S. Livestock And Meat Sector," Staff Papers 13465, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    12. Baumes, Harry S. Jr & Womack, Abner W., 1979. "Price Equilibrium Or Price Disequilibrium In The Corn Sector," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-15, October.
    13. Sanders, Dwight R. & Manfredo, Mark R., 2004. "Predicting Pork Supplies: An Application of Multiple Forecast Encompassing," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(3), pages 1-11, December.
    14. Chen Zhuo & Yang Yuhong, 2007. "Time Series Models for Forecasting: Testing or Combining?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 56-90, March.
    15. McLaughlin, Edward W. & Hawkes, Gerard F., 1987. "A Forecast For The Grocery Industry In The 1990s," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 18(1), pages 1-10, February.
    16. Chr. R. Weiss, 1992. "The Effect Of Price Reduction And Direct Income Support Policies On Agricultural Input Markets In Austria," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(1), pages 1-13, January.
    17. Chen, Dean T. & Dharmaratne, Gerard, 1990. "Farm Price Determination in Structural Models: Implications of Quantity-Dependent and Price-Dependent Specifications," Research Reports 257906, Texas A&M University, Agricultural and Food Policy Center.
    18. Robinson, Lindon J., 1981. "A New Development In The Marginal Productivity Theory Of Factor Demand," 1981 Annual Meeting, July 26-29, Clemson, South Carolina 279308, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Vere, David T. & Griffith, Garry R., 1990. "Comparative Forecast Accuracy In The New South Wales Prime Lamb Market," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 34(2), pages 1-15, August.
    20. T. Kesavan & Zuhair A. Hassan & Helen H. Jensen & Stanley R. Johnson, 1993. "Dynamics and Long-run Structure in U.S. Meat Demand," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 41(2), pages 139-153, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32375. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.