IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/wjagec/32250.html

A Monte Carlo Comparison Of Alternative Estimators Of Autocorrelated Simultaneous Systems Using A U.S. Pork Sector Model As The True Structure

Author

Listed:
  • Naik, Gopal
  • Dixon, Bruce L.

Abstract

Monte Carlo analysis of the performance of alternative estimators of simultaneous system's coefficients in the presence of autocorrelation is performed. The "true" underlying model is an estimated, three-equation, monthly model of the U.S. pork market. Estimators for ex post forecasts are also compared. Multicollinearity is found to be a salient characteristic likely adversely affecting estimator performance. Results show that correcting for autocorrelation is desirable when levels of autocorrelation are high for both parameter accuracy and ex post forecasting. However, the best structural coefficient estimator for high levels of autocorrelation is not necessarily the best estimator for ex post forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Naik, Gopal & Dixon, Bruce L., 1986. "A Monte Carlo Comparison Of Alternative Estimators Of Autocorrelated Simultaneous Systems Using A U.S. Pork Sector Model As The True Structure," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32250
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.32250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/32250/files/11020134.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.32250?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raymond M. Leuthold & Peter A. Hartmann, 1979. "A Semi-Strong Form Evaluation of the Efficiency of the Hog Futures Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(3), pages 482-489.
    2. Larry Martin & Anthony C. Zwart, 1975. "A Spatial and Temporal Model of the North American Pork Sector for the Evaluation of Policy Alternatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 57(1), pages 55-66.
    3. Marvin L. Hayenga & Duane Hacklander, 1970. "Monthly Supply-Demand Relationships for Fed Cattle and Hogs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 52(4), pages 535-544.
    4. Gopal Naik & Raymond M. Leuthold, 1986. "A Note on Qualitative Forecast Evaluation," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 68(3), pages 721-726.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomek, William G. & Robinson, Kenneth L., 1977. "PART V. Agricultural Price Analysis and Outlook," AAEA Monographs, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 337217.
    2. Garcia, Philip & Hudson, Michael A. & Waller, Mark L., 1988. "The Pricing Efficiency of Agricultural Futures Markets: An Analysis of Previous Research Results," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 119-130, July.
    3. Kauffman, Daniel, 1984. "An Evaluation of the Potential for a Market in Hog Contracts," Agricultural Economic Report Series 201342, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    4. Pena-Levano, Luis M & Foster, Kenneth, 2016. "Efficiency gains in commodity forecasting using disaggregated levels versus more aggregated predictions," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235792, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Kastens, Terry L. & Schroeder, Ted C., 1994. "Cattle Feeder Behavior And Feeder Cattle Placements," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(2), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Epperson, James E. & Huang, Wan-Tran, 1992. "The Potential For Intraseasonal Market Flow Management Of Southeastern Sweet Potatoes," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 23(2), pages 1-8, June.
    7. Sanders, Dwight R. & Garcia, Philip & Manfredo, Mark R., 2008. "Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 33(01), pages 1-12, April.
    8. Rausser, Gordon C & Carter, Colin, 1983. "Futures Market Efficiency in the Soybean Complex," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(3), pages 469-478, August.
    9. Kaylen, Michael S. & Devino, Gary T. & Procter, Michael H., 1988. "Optimal Use Of Qualitative Models: An Application To Country Grain Elevator Bankruptcies," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 20(2), pages 1-7, December.
    10. Eswaramoorthy, K., 1991. "U.S. livestock production and factor demand: a multiproduct dynamic dual approach," ISU General Staff Papers 1991010108000010523, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Docquier, Frédéric & Iandolo, Stefano & Rapoport, Hillel & Turati, Riccardo & Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague, 2024. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 18822, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Tara Sinclair & H. O. Stekler & L. Kitzinger, 2010. "Directional forecasts of GDP and inflation: a joint evaluation with an application to Federal Reserve predictions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(18), pages 2289-2297.
    13. Shonkwiler, John Scott, 1986. "Are Livestock Futures Prices Rational Forecasts?," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 11(2), pages 1-6, December.
    14. Zwart, Anthony C. & Martin, Larry, 1974. "The North American Pork Sector- Analysis of its Economic Interrelationships and a Model for Policy Evaluation," Working Papers 245022, University of Guelph, Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    15. Frédéric Docquier & Lucas Guichard & Stefano Iandolo & Hillel Rapoport & Riccardo Turati & Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, 2022. "Populism and the Skill-Content of Globalization: Evidence from the Last 60 Years," CESifo Working Paper Series 10068, CESifo.
    16. Riechers, Robin & Hinson, Roger A., 1988. "Price Relationships Between Regionally Important Fresh Vegetable Markets," Journal of Food Distribution Research, Food Distribution Research Society, vol. 19(2), pages 1-9, September.
    17. Blank, Steven C., 1989. "Research On Futures Markets: Issues, Approaches, And Empirical Findings," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(01), pages 1-14, July.
    18. Skold, Karl Durwood, 1989. "The integration of alternative information systems: an application to the Hogs and Pigs report," ISU General Staff Papers 1989010108000010239, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    19. Lee, Tsoung-Chao & Seaver, Stanley K., 1980. "Forecasts Of Farm Animal Production In The New England States And In The U.S," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-6, April.
    20. Ole Gjølberg & Berth-Arne Bengtsson, 1997. "Forecasting quarterly hog prices: Simple autoregressive models vs. naive predictions," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(6), pages 673-679.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:wjagec:32250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/waeaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.