IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ags/polgne/356504.html

Wpływ redukcji ceł na towary nierolne w rundzie Doha na handel zagraniczny Polski

Author

Listed:
  • Hagemejer, Jan
  • Kaliszuk, Ewa

Abstract

The paper examines the effects of a multilateral reduction of customs duties on non-agricultural goods, under a “nonlinear Swiss formula,” on Poland’s foreign trade, including both exports and imports. As part of the Doha Development Round of the World Trade Organization (WTO), countries are trying to work out a mathematical formula according to which national customs tariffs would be reduced. This is the key focus of ongoing negotiations concerning Non-Agricultural Market Access (NAMA). The author analyzes the newest version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), known as GTAP 6.0, according to four scenarios. The GTAP model is a multiregional, multi-sector model that is often used to study the effects of commercial policy. The author describes the results of the multilateral negotiations according to their state as of the end of August 2006. The scenarios analyzed by the author differ in terms of “reduction coefficient A” under the Swiss formula. However, in all variants, the coefficient for developed countries is lower than that for developing countries. The analysis shows that the reduction of customs duties will have a limited impact on Poland’s foreign trade. All scenarios point to a small increase in the volume of exports and an insignificant drop in the volume of imports, accompanied by a rise in import prices and a decline of export prices. The deterioration of the country’s terms of trade is the most visible in the most radical scenario. The European Union as a whole would be more visibly affected than Poland by the planned reduction of customs duties. Similarly, the move would lead to limited changes in the overall volume of industrial production in Poland, though, in terms of individual sectors, there will probably be a clear drop in the production of clothing, textiles and leather goods, accompanied by a small increase in output in the wood industry. Changes in the volume of trade, production and employment are the most visible in the radical scenario. In all options, the reduction of customs duties will have no perceptible influence on Poland’s gross domestic product, though GDP in purchasing power parity terms will decrease as a result of deteriorated terms of trade. There will be a marginal deterioration in the overall level of prosperity in Polish society. This will be due to the fact that the drop in terms of trade will outweigh the increase of consumer surplus.

Suggested Citation

  • Hagemejer, Jan & Kaliszuk, Ewa, . "Wpływ redukcji ceł na towary nierolne w rundzie Doha na handel zagraniczny Polski," Gospodarka Narodowa-The Polish Journal of Economics, Szkoła Główna Handlowa w Warszawie / SGH Warsaw School of Economics, vol. 2007(5-6).
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:356504
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.356504
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/356504/files/Kaliszuk.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.356504?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kinnman, S. & Lodefalk, M., 2006. "Economic implications of the Doha round," Conference papers 331496, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    2. repec:wbk:wbpubs:6889 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Smith, Alasdair & Venables, Anthony J., 1988. "Completing the internal market in the European Community : Some industry simulations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1501-1525, September.
    4. Alan Matthews & Keith Walsh, 2006. "The Economic Consequences of the Doha Round for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 37(1), pages 47-69.
    5. Chris Allen & Michael Gasiorek & Alasdair Smith, 1998. "The competition effects of the Single Market in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(27), pages 440-486.
    6. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:13:y:1998:i:27:p:439-486 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Glenn W. Harrison & Thomas F. Rutherford & David G. Tarr, 2017. "Quantifying The Uruguay Round," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Trade Policies for Development and Transition, chapter 16, pages 363-388, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    8. J. Francois & H. van Meijl & F. van Tongeren, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Developing Countries under the Doha Round," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-060/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Aug 2003.
    9. Douglas C. Lippoldt & Przemyslaw Kowalski, 2005. "Trade Preference Erosion: Expanded Assessment of Countries at Risk of Welfare Losses," OECD Trade Policy Papers 20, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jensen, Jesper & Tarr, David G., 2010. "Regional trade policy options for Tanzania : the importance of services commitments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5481, The World Bank.
    2. Willenbockel, Dirk, 2004. "Specification choice and robustness in CGE trade policy analysis with imperfect competition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 1065-1099, December.
    3. Gros, Daniel & Alcidi, Cinzia, 2014. "The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe," CEPS Papers 9142, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    4. Ferjani, Ali, 2003. "Imperfect Competition, Economies of Scale and Trade Liberalisation in Tunisia - A Comparative Analysis Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM)," Agrarwirtschaft und Agrarsoziologie\ Economie et Sociologie Rurales, Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 2003(01), pages 1-18.
    5. Roberto A. De Santis, 2003. "Why exporting countries agree to voluntary export restraints: the oligopolistic power of the foreign supplier," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(3), pages 247-263, August.
    6. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp432 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. in ’t Veld, Jan, 2019. "The economic benefits of the EU Single Market in goods and services," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 803-818.
    8. Keshab Bhattarai, 2016. "Growth and Income Distributions in Four EU Economies," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 22(3), pages 263-277, August.
    9. Robert C. Feenstra, 2006. "New Evidence on the Gains from Trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(4), pages 617-641, December.
    10. Jesper Jensen & David Tarr, 2014. "Deep Trade Policy Options for Armenia: The Importance of Trade Facilitation, Services and Standards Liberalization," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: APPLIED TRADE POLICY MODELING IN 16 COUNTRIES Insights and Impacts from World Bank CGE Based Projects, chapter 19, pages 453-508, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Eromenko, Igor, 2010. "Accession to the WTO. Computable General Equilibrium Analysis: the Case of Ukraine. Part I," MPRA Paper 67476, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Anthony Venables, 1994. "Trade Policy under Imperfect Competition: A Numerical Assessment," NBER Chapters, in: Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy, pages 41-66, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Peterson, Everett B., 2004. "A Comparison of Marketing Margins Across Sectors, Users, and Regions," Conference papers 331224, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    14. Joseph Francois & Julia Woerz, 0000. "Rags in the High Rent District: the Evolution of Quota Rents in Textiles and Clothing," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-007/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    15. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 414-438, December.
    16. Maryla Maliszewska, 2004. "EU Enlargement: Benefits of the Single Market Expansion for Current and New Member States," CASE Network Studies and Analyses 0273, CASE-Center for Social and Economic Research.
    17. De Bonis, Valeria, 1997. "Regional integration and factor income taxation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1849, The World Bank.
    18. Ariu, Andrea & Breinlich, Holger & Corcos, Gregory & Mion, Giordano, 2019. "The interconnections between services and goods trade at the firm-level," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 173-188.
    19. Jože P. Damijan & Igor Masten, 2002. "Time Dependent Efficiency of Free Trade Agreements - The Case of Slovenia and the CEFTA Agreement," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 33(1), pages 147-160.
    20. Jensen, Jesper & Rutherford, Thomas & Tarr, David, 2005. "Telecommunications reform within Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3501, The World Bank.
    21. Bretschger, Lucas & Lechthaler, Filippo & Rausch, Sebastian & Zhang, Lin, 2017. "Knowledge diffusion, endogenous growth, and the costs of global climate policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 47-72.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:polgne:356504. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/irsghpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.