Decomposition Of Agri-Food Exports In Selected Mercosur Countries And Eu Member States Using An Input-Output Model

The Mercosur countries and the European Union are among the most important players global agri-food trade. However, they differ significantly in production structures, patterns of specialization, and the degree of integration into global value chains. This paper aims to decompose agri-food exports of selected Mercosur countries and EU Member States by the origin of value added and to assess their participation in global value chains in the context of the planned trade liberalization under the EU-Mercosur agreement. The study uses global input-output tables from Eurostat’s FIGARO database, published in July 2025, and employs an input-output framework. The analysis covers Argentina and Brazil as well as eight EU Member States with the largest agri-food trade and refers to the period 2019-2023. The results indicate that agri-food exports of Mercosur countries are characterized by a very low share of foreign value added, reflecting the dominance of primary and low-processed products as well as limited use of imported intermediate inputs and services. In contrast, EU agri-food exports are characterized by a high degree of processing, a significant services content, and deep integration into global value chains. Moreover, the share of foreign value added in EU exports increased further over 2019-2023. The findings suggest that, following the entry into force of the EU-Mercosur agreement, potential competitive pressure from Mercosur on the EU market will stem primarily from cost advantages and the scale of agricultural raw material production rather than from deep integration into global value chains.