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Probabilistic Models of Yield, Price, and Revenue Risks for Fed Cattle Production

Author

Listed:
  • Belasco, Eric J.
  • Taylor, Mykel R.
  • Goodwin, Barry K.
  • Schroeder, Ted C.

Abstract

Cattle feeding enterprises operate amid variability originating in prices and production. This research explicitly models yield risks related to cattle feeding by relating the mean and variance of yield performance factors to observable conditioning variables. The results demonstrate that pen characteristics, such as entry weight, gender, placement season, and location influence the mean and variability of yield factors, defined as dry matter feed conversion, average daily gain, mortality, and animal health costs. Ex ante profit distributions, conditional on cattle placement characteristics, are derived through simulation methods to evaluate the effects of price or yield shocks on the distributional characteristics of expected profits.

Suggested Citation

  • Belasco, Eric J. & Taylor, Mykel R. & Goodwin, Barry K. & Schroeder, Ted C., 2009. "Probabilistic Models of Yield, Price, and Revenue Risks for Fed Cattle Production," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-15, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:joaaec:48761
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harvey, A C, 1976. "Estimating Regression Models with Multiplicative Heteroscedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 44(3), pages 461-465, May.
    2. Alan P. Ker & Keith Coble, 2003. "Modeling Conditional Yield Densities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 291-304.
    3. Richard E. Just & Quinn Weninger, 1999. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(2), pages 287-304.
    4. Langemeier, Michael R. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Mintert, James R., 1992. "Determinants Of Cattle Finishing Profitability," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-7, December.
    5. Keith H. Coble & Thomas O. Knight & Rulon D. Pope & Jeffery R. Williams, 1996. "Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 439-447.
    6. Alan P. Ker & Barry K. Goodwin, 2000. "Nonparametric Estimation of Crop Insurance Rates Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 82(2), pages 463-478.
    7. Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
    8. Joseph Atwood & Saleem Shaik & Myles Watts, 2003. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed? A Reexamination," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 888-901.
    9. Mark, Darrell R. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Jones, Rodney D., 2000. "Identifying Economic Risk In Cattle Feeding," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-14.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Belasco, Eric J. & Cheng, Yuanshan & Schroeder, Ted C., 2015. "The Impact of Extreme Weather on Cattle Feeding Profits," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-21, May.
    2. Yu, Chin-Hsien & Park, Seong Cheol & McCarl, Bruce A. & Amosson, Stephen H., 2012. "Feedlots, Air Quality and Dust Control-Benefit Estimation under Climate Change," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124736, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Kumar, Anjani & Kumar, Pramod & Sharma, Alakh N., 2012. "Crop Diversification in Eastern India: Status and Determinants," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-17.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Livestock Production/Industries; Production Economics; Productivity Analysis; Risk and Uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

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