Probabilistic Models of Yield, Price, and Revenue Risks for Fed Cattle Production
Cattle feeding enterprises operate amid variability originating in prices and production. This research explicitly models yield risks related to cattle feeding by relating the mean and variance of yield performance factors to observable conditioning variables. The results demonstrate that pen characteristics, such as entry weight, gender, placement season, and location influence the mean and variability of yield factors, defined as dry matter feed conversion, average daily gain, mortality, and animal health costs. Ex ante profit distributions, conditional on cattle placement characteristics, are derived through simulation methods to evaluate the effects of price or yield shocks on the distributional characteristics of expected profits.
Volume (Year): 41 (2009)
Issue (Month): 01 (April)
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- Octavio A. Ramirez & Sukant Misra & James Field, 2003. "Crop-Yield Distributions Revisited," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(1), pages 108-120.
- Joseph Atwood & Saleem Shaik & Myles Watts, 2003. "Are Crop Yields Normally Distributed? A Reexamination," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(4), pages 888-901.
- Mark, Darrell R. & Schroeder, Ted C. & Jones, Rodney D., 2000. "Identifying Economic Risk In Cattle Feeding," Journal of Agribusiness, Agricultural Economics Association of Georgia, vol. 18(3). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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